Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction 9/16/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Reds vs Cardinals Prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 16th at the Busch Stadium the second game of this series, with the Reds having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Saint Louis Cardinals Preview

The Saint Louis Cardinals have a 73-78 record this season and are sitting on the 4th place of the NL Central. The Cardinals have a 41-35 home record and are 76-67 in over/under. They are coming off a 6-11 home defeat by the Reds, and are 1-6 in their last 7 games. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 games and are playing the Brewers and the Giants next.

The Cardinals have a .245 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .378 Slugging percentage. Saint Louis’ pitching staff has a 4.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Alec Burleson leads the Cardinals with 129 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .283 batting average. Wilson Contreras leads the team in RBI, with 80, adding a team-high 20 home runs.

Michael McGreevy (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cardinals, and he has a 6-3 record, 4.44 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds Preview

The Cincinnati Reds have a 75-75 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL Central. The Reds have a 35-41 road record and are 57-85 in over/under. They are coming off a 11-6 road victory over the Cardinals, that ended their two-game losing streak. Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games and are playing the Pirates and the Cubs next.

The Reds have a .246 batting average this season, .317 OBP and .392 slugging percentage. Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 3.99 ERA and 1.24 WHIP.  Elly De La Cruz leads the Reds with 155 hits, and in RBI, with 82, adding a team-high 19 home runs. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .263 batting average.

Andrew Abbott (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Reds, and he has a 9-6 record, 2.79 ERA and 1.13 WHIP.

Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals Betting Trends: September 16, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Michael McGreevy      Record this season: 6-3      ERA: 4.44
• Home Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Reds: 1-0

Why the St. Louis Cardinals will win

• The Reds have lost each of their last six games as road favorites against NL Central opponents following a road win.
• The underdogs have won six of the Cardinals’ last seven games at Busch Stadium.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Cardinals’ last seven games at Busch Stadium.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Tuesday games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Cardinals have led after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against the Reds.
• The Reds have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Andrew Abbott      Record this season: 9-6      ERA: 2.79
• Road Record: 5-2
• Last 5 against Cardinals: 3-1

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Cardinals have lost each of their last five night games after playing the previous day.
• The Reds have won five of their last six games against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Reds following a loss.
• The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six night games against National League opponents.
• The Reds have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites against the Cardinals.
• The Reds have led after 3 innings in four of their last five road games against National League opponents.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five home night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last four games as road favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Four of the Cardinals’ last five games against NL Central opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Reds’ last eight road games against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last five night games between the Reds and Cardinals at Busch Stadium.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Nolan Arenado has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Cardinals as home underdogs against the Reds.
• Nolan Arenado has recorded at least one hit in 12 of his last 13 home appearances against the Reds.
• Victor Scott II ranks T10th in the league in Steals (32) this season.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has recorded a Double in four of the Reds’ last five games against the Cardinals.
• Austin Hays has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds’ last 10 night games.
• Will Benson has hit a home run in each of the Reds’ last two games as favorites.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks T7th in the league in Steals (35) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cardinals rank T29th in the league for triples this season (8).
• The Cardinals rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (1117).
• The Reds rank T8th in the league for hits allowed this season (1186).
• The Reds rank 22nd in the league for home runs this season (152).

Reds vs Cardinals Prediction

The Reds are 3-2 in their last 5 meetings against the Cardinals, but both teams are tied 2-2 wins in their last 4 meetings in Saint Louis. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.

In this Reds vs Cardinals Prediction, the Reds are coming as -110 road favorites. The Reds have the pitching advantage, as Abbott has been solid this season, and has a 2.25 ERA in his three starts against the Cardinals this season. On the flip side, McGreevy has been terrible at home, with a 6.07 home ERA, and the Cardinals are weaker against left-handed pitching. I like the value with the guests as small favorites in this matchup, so take the Cincinnati Reds on the moneyline on the road.