Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Prediction 7/21/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Cincinnati Reds and the Seattle Mariners meet Tuesday in MLB action from T-Mobile Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Cincinnati Reds will send out Chase Burnes for the start here and Burns is 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA and 118 strikeouts this season. Luis Castillo will start for Seattle and is 3-8 with a 4.93 ERA and 81 strikeouts this season.

Cincinnati Reds Recap

The Cincinnati Reds come into this game looking to bounce back from an 8-0 loss at the hands of the Mariners on Monday to sit at 45-54 this season. After this series, the Reds will head on the road for a series against the Cardinals.

Reds Alternate Wins & Losses In 5 Straight

Elly De La Cruz has 89 hits with 15 doubles, 4 triples, 16 home runs and 45 RBIs while Sal Stewart has 95 hits with 23 doubles, 20 home runs and 70 RBIs. Spencer Steer has 81 hits with 14 doubles, 16 home runs and 40 RBIs and Matt McLain has 51 hits with 13 doubles, 8 home runs and 25 RBIs. JJ Bleday’s added 61 hits with 11 doubles, 16 home runs and 43 RBIs as well on the year.

Seattle Mariners Recap

The Seattle Mariners come into this game looking to add on to their win over the Reds from Monday to sit at 51-50 this season. After this series, the Mariners will head on the road for a series against the Texas Rangers.

Mariners Win 3 Straight

Luke Raley has 15 home runs and 37 RBIs this season. Cole Young’s added 92 hits with 14 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs and 48 RBIs and Cal Raleigh has 42 hits with 7 doubles, 10 home runs and 34 RBIs as well this season. Randy Arozarena has 96 hits with 21 doubles, 11 home runs and 45 RBIs as well on the year. Josh Naylor also has 93 hits with 8 home runs and 37 RBIs as well on the year. Julio Rodriguez has also added 91 hits with 15 doubles, 14 home runs and 42 RBIs.

Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners Betting Trends: July 21, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Luis Castillo      Record this season: 3-8      ERA: 4.93
• Home Record: 1-3
• Last 5 against Reds: 0-1

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Mariners have won each of their last six home games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have lost seven of their last eight night games against American League opponents.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight night games against American League opponents.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in eight of their last nine home games against the Reds.
• The Reds have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mariners have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games against the Reds.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Chase Burns      Record this season: 11-1      ERA: 2.54
• Road Record: 5-0
• Last 5 against Mariners: –

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The Reds have won each of their last seven road games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mariners have lost three of their last four night games following a win.
• The Reds have covered the run line each of their last seven road games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against NL Central opponents.
• The Reds have won the first inning in five of their last six night games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mariners have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Reds’ last nine night games as underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Twelve of the Mariners’ last 16 home games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Mariners’ last 10 night games.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Reds’ last eight road games.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• Cal Raleigh has hit at least one home run in four of the Mariners’ last five games against the Reds.
• Luis Castillo has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Luis Castillo has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a home favorite against NL Central opponents.
• Josh Naylor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 home appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• JJ Bleday has hit a home run in three of the Reds’ last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Chase Burns has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances.
• Chase Burns has recorded seven or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine road appearances.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in 21 of his last 22 road appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Chase Burns ranks T4th in the league for Wins (11) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mariners rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (123).
• The Mariners rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (123).
• The Reds rank 29th in the league for hits this season (764).
• The Reds rank 29th in the league for hits this season (764).

Cincinnati Reds vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction

I’m on the Reds here. I ust think Chase Burns is the far superior option and don’t let Monday’s result fool you, the Mariners have struggled against righties in July. I think they struggle here as well against a flamethrower like Burns and I think the Reds bounce back here. Give me Cincinnati.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Cincinnati -105