Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction 6/11/25 MLB Picks

The Chicago White Sox are visiting the Houston Astros on Wednesday, June 11th at the Daikin Park in the second game of this series, with the White Sox having a 1-0 lead. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a White Sox vs Astros Prediction. We will examine:

The Houston Astros’ recent form and player performance

The Chicago White Sox’s recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Houston Astros

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Chicago White Sox

Recent betting trends in games played between the Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros game

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 36-30 record this season and are sitting in first place in the AL West. The Astros have a 22-13 home record and 26-37 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-4 home defeat by the White Sox and have back-to-back losses. Under is 6-2 in their last 8 games, and they are playing the Athletics and the Twins next.

The Astros have a .251 batting average this season, a .316 OBP, and a .385 slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 3.53 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Jeremy Pena leads the Astros with 81 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .319 batting average. Isaac Paredes leads the team in RBI with 39, adding a team-high 14 home runs.

Ryan Gusto (R) is the projected starter for the Astros, and he has a 3-3 record, 4.78 ERA, and 1.64 WHIP. He has been weaker at home, with a 5.40 ERA across seven home starts, and in his previous start, he gave up 3 runs in 4.1 innings pitched, in a 0-3 loss to the Pirates. This will be his first career start against the White Sox.

Chicago White Sox Preview

The Chicago White Sox have a 23-44 record this season and are sitting in last place in the AL Central. The White Sox have a 7-26 road record and are 31-32 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-2 road defeat over the Astros, and are 4-1 in their last 5 games. Over is 5-3 in their last 8 games, and they are playing the Rangers and the Cardinals next.

The White Sox have a .222 batting average this season, a .297 OBP, and a .344 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 4.09 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Lenyn Sosa leads the White Sox with 55 hits, while Miguel Vargas leads the team in RBI, with 29, in home runs, with 9, while being the team’s best hitter with a team-high .233 batting average

Sean Burke (R) is the projected starter for the White Sox, and he has a 3-6 record, 4.03 ERA, and 1.39 WHIP. He has been weaker on the road with a 4.45 ERA across four road starts, and he has given up two runs or less in six of his last seven starts. This will be his first career start against the Astros.

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The White Sox have lost each of their last seven night games against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Astros have won each of their last seven home games following a home loss.
• The White Sox have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against American League opponents following a road win.
• The favorites have covered the run line in four of the Astros’ last five games.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The White Sox have trailed after 5 innings in six of their last eight road games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Chicago White Sox will win

• The White Sox have won four of their last five games as underdogs.
• The Astros have lost each of their last four night games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The White Sox have covered the run line in each of their last six games as underdogs against AL West opponents.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as home favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven home games against AL Central opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven home games against AL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the White Sox’s last nine road games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Astros’ last four night games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last eight games against AL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the White Sox’s last four night games against AL West opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Astros rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (636).
• The Astros rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.219).
• The White Sox rank 29th in the league for hits this season (482).
• The White Sox rank 29th in the league for batting average this season (.222).

White Sox vs Astros Prediction

The White Sox are 3-1 in their 4 meetings against the Astros this season, and are 3-1 to the over. The Astros were 4-1 in their 5 meetings before that, and under was 6-1 prior to those three meetings.

In this White Sox vs  Astros Prediction, the Astros are coming as -180 home favorites. The Astros are rightfully favored, as they have a better overall record and have been very strong at home, while the White Sox are one of the weakest road teams in the whole league. Both pitchers have been struggling this season, with a combined 8.81 ERA, and prior to yesterday’s low-scoring game, their other three meetings this season had 9, 10, and 11 total runs. I expect the offenses to bounce back against those two pitchers, so take the over 8.5 in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Over 8.5