Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 9/17/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Cubs vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, September 17th at the PNC Park the third game of this series, with the Cubs having the 2-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 65-87 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL Central. They have a 42-35 home record, and are 60-87 in over/under. They are coming off a 1-4 home defeat by the Cubs, and are 1-9 in their last 10 games. Under is 9-1 in their last 9 games are playing the Reds and the Athletics next.

The Pirates have a .230 batting average this season, .304 OBP and .347 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 3.87 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with 134 hits, and a team-high 71 RBI. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .241 batting average, while Oneil Cruz leads the team in home runs, with 19.

Johan Oviedo (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 2-0 record, 2.81 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have an 87-64 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL Central. The Cubs have a 41-35 road record and are 67-72 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-1 road victory over the Pirates, and are 5-1 in their last 6 games. Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games and are playing the Mets and the Reds next.

The Cubs have a .250 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .428 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 166 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .301 batting average. Seiya Suzuki leads the team in RBI, with 91, while Pete Crow-Armstrong adds a team-high 29 home runs.

Matthew Boyd (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 13-8 record, 3.05 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

The Chicago Cubs @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: September 17, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Johan Oviedo      Record this season: 2-0      ERA: 2.81
• Home Record: 1-0
• Last 5 against Cubs: 2-2

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last six Wednesday games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have lost four of their last five games as favorites against the Pirates following a road win.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in 14 of their last 15 games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last eight Wednesday games as home underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven Wednesday home games.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight Wednesday home games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Matthew Boyd      Record this season: 13-8      ERA: 3.05
• Road Record: 2-7
• Last 5 against Pirates: 1-1

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Pirates have lost each of their last seven home games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have won eight of their last nine road games against the Pirates.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games against NL Central opponents.
• The road team has covered the run line in nine of the last 10 games between the Cubs and Pirates.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games at PNC Park.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the last nine games between the Cubs and Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Cubs’ last nine games as favorites against the Pirates have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Cubs’ last eight games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the last five games between the Cubs and Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last eight home games against the Cubs.
• Johan Oviedo has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Johan Oviedo has recorded five or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances with his team as an underdog against the Cubs.
• Tommy Pham has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine Wednesday day appearances.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Ian Happ has hit a home run in three of the Cubs’ last five day games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Seiya Suzuki has recorded a Double in each of his last three road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Matthew Boyd has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six Wednesday appearances against teams that held a losing record.
• Carson Kelly has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Nico Hoerner ranks T5th in the league in Hits (166) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for runs scored this season (541).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (107).
• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (383).
• The Cubs rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (153).

Cubs vs Pirates Prediction

The Cubs are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings against the Pirates, and are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Pittsburgh. Under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 meetings.

In this Cubs vs Pirates Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -165 road favorites. If the Pirates are not winning with Skenes on the mound, they are not winning with anyone. Boyd takes the mound for the Cubs, and he has been elite this season, despite his recent struggles. The Cubs have a better bullpen and have the 7th-best offense in the league, while the Pirates are dead last, and even weaker against left-handed pitching. Take the Chicago Cubs to take care of business on the road in this one.