Braves vs Pirates Prediction 7/9/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Braves vs Pirates prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 9th at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are 53-38 this season after they split the first two games in this series by scores of 4-12 and 3-0. In game two, Atlanta scored two runs in the eighth and one in the ninth to escape with the low scoring win. The Braves recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Bart, who went 1-3 with one home run and two RBIs. Holmes allowed three hits and zero earned runs over 5.0 innings, while Dodd got the win and Iglesias picked up the save. Prior to this series, Atlanta split four games with the Mets and lost two out of three against the Cardinals. 

This season, Atlanta has a 3.61 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP and a .230 opponent batting average, while they have scored 444 runs with a .248 batting average and a .313 on base percentage. Matt Olson has led the Braves with 24 home runs and 57 RBIs, while Drake Baldwin has added 15 home runs and 44 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Bryce Elder, who is 5-6 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 98.2 innings pitched this season. 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 47-46 this year after they lost game two by a score of 0-3 on Wednesday night. Pittsburgh pitched pretty well for the majority of the game, but their offense never came through in the shutout loss. The Pirates recorded four hits and they were led by Ozuna, who went 1-3 with one walk in the game. Jones allowed zero hits and zero earned runs over 6.0 innings, while Santana picked up the loss in relief. Prior to this series, Pittsburgh won two out of three against the Nationals and split four games with the Phillies. 

This season, Pittsburgh has a 4.26 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while they have scored 487 runs with a .262 batting average and a .341 on base percentage. Brandon Lowe has led the Pirates with 21 home runs and 64 RBIs, while Bryan Reynolds has added 13 home runs and 56 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Mitch Keller, who is 6-6 with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP over 100.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Braves have lost each of their last four games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have won four of their last five games as home underdogs against NL East opponents following a loss.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs against the Braves following a loss.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against the Pirates following a win.
• The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The road team has won three of the Braves’ last four games.
• The Pirates have lost three of their last four home games after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Braves have covered the run line in 14 of their last 16 games as road favorites following a road win.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Braves’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates’ last five home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Braves’ last four day games at PNC Park.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in six of the last seven games between the Braves and Pirates at PNC Park.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates’ last eight games as home underdogs.
• Mitch Keller has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances with the Pirates as underdogs against the Braves.
• Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in each of the Pirates’ last two games as underdogs.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Michael Harris has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in day games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
• Bryce Elder has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four road appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Joey Bart has hit a home run in two of the Braves’ last three road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Bryce Elder has recorded a win in each of his last three road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

Braves vs Pirates Prediction

Pittsburgh had their winning streak snapped on Wednesday night in game two, but they have scored 7+ runs in three of their last four games. The Pirates are 24-23 at home this year, while the Braves are 26-20 on the road. Atlanta has lost three of their last four and they have allowed 29 runs in those three losses. The Braves are starting Elder, who has allowed 5+ earned runs in three straight starts, while Keller has allowed 3+ earned runs in four of his last five outings. Take the over here.

David Racey's Pick: Over 9