Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 9/25/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays meet Thursday in MLB action from Rogers Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Boston Red Sox will send out Brayan Bello for the start here and Bello is 11-8 with a 3.34 ERA and 121 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against Toronto, Bello is 2-2 with a 4.78 ERA and 22 strikeouts. The Toronto Blue Jays did not have a starting pitcher announced at the time that this article was posted.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox come into this game looking to add on to their 7-1 win over Toronto from Wednesday’s matchup to sit at 87-71 this season. After this series, the Red Sox will head home for a huge series against the Detroit Tigers.

Red Sox Win 4 Of Their Last 5

Alex Bregman has 116 hits including 27 doubles along with 18 home runs and 62 RBIs this season. Trevor Story’s added 156 hits with 25 home runs, 95 RBIs and 31 stolen bases while Jarren Duran has 156 hits with 39 doubles, 13 triples, 16 home runs, 82 RBIs and a team-high 24 stolen bases. Roman Anthony’s added 75 hits with 18 doubles, 8 home runs and 32 RBIs while Wilyer Abreu has 22 home runs with 69 RBIs and 6 stolen bases and Ceddanne Rafaela has 16 homers, 31 doubles, 3 triples, 62 RBIs and 19 stolen bases this season.

Toronto Blue Jays Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays come into this game looking to rebound from their loss at the hands of the Red Sox on Wednesday to sit at 90-68 this season. After this set, Toronto will welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to town for a series to close out the regular season.

Blue Jays Drop 6 Of Their Last 7

George Springer has 145 hits and Bo Bichette has 181 hits with Springer adding 30 home runs, a triple, 25 doubles and 80 RBIs while Bichette has 44 doubles, 18 home runs and 94 RBIs. Andres Gimenez has added 66 hits with 9 doubles and 7 home runs and 32 RBIs this season along with 12 stolen bases. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also has 23 homers, 34 doubles and 83 RBIs while Springer also has a .305 batting average and 106 strikeouts up to this point in the year. Addison Barger’s chipped in 31 doubles with 20 home runs and 73 RBIs and Ernie Clement’s added 33 doubles as part of his 146 hits this season.

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends: September 25, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Louie Varland      Record this season: 4-3      ERA: 3.10
• Home Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 1-1

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Blue Jays have won each of their last 11 Thursday night games.
• The Red Sox have lost nine of their last 10 Thursday night road games against AL East opponents.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line each of their last nine Thursday games against teams that held a winning record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brayan Bello      Record this season: 11-8      ERA: 3.34
• Road Record: 3-3
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 2-2

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won 10 of their last 11 games as underdogs against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The Blue Jays have lost five of their last six games as favorites.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as underdogs against the Blue Jays.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five night games against American League opponents.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five home night games.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games at Rogers Centre.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Blue Jays’ last four games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Red Sox’s last four games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Red Sox’s last five games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the last five games between the Red Sox and Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Daulton Varsho has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances against the Red Sox after playing the previous day.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 21 appearances with the Blue Jays as home favorites against AL opponents.
• Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• George Springer ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.392) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox’s last eight road games against AL East opponents.
• Masataka Yoshida has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances against the Blue Jays.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1425).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.265).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (316).
• The Red Sox rank 4th in the league for hits this season (1386).

Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

I’m on Toronto here. It would be nice to know who Toronto is sending out here although I do think it’s more towards a bullpen game, but I think Toronto gets out of their funk here against a starter in Bello that htey’ve had success against in the past. Bello struggled against Toronto earlier this year and he’s just not in great form right now so I’ll roll with the Blue Jays at home to avoid the sweep.