Boston Red Sox vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 8/16/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, August 16th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 60-65 record this season and are sitting in 5th place in the NL Central. They have a 31-31 home record and are coming off a 0-4 home loss against the Red Sox. They will face the Tigers and the Dodgers next.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a .256 batting average this season, a .333 OBP, and a .411 slugging percentage. The Pirates’ pitching staff has a 4.32 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Nick Gonzales leads the Pirates with a .307 batting average. Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 77 and adds a team-high 26 home runs.

Lake Bachar (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Pirates, and he has a 1-2 record, a 3.97 ERA, and a 1.08 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox Preview

The Boston Red Sox have a 66-57 record this season and are sitting in 3rd place in the AL East. They have a 37-26 away record and are coming off a 4-0 away win against the Pirates. They will face the Diamondbacks and the Giants next.

The Boston Red Sox have a .248 batting average this season, a .321 OBP, and a .401 slugging percentage. The Red Sox’ pitching staff has a 3.48 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Ceddanne Rafaela leads the Red Sox with a .287 batting average. Willson Contreras leads the team in RBI with 72 and adds a team-high 24 home runs.

Patrick Sandoval (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 1-1 record, a 3.30 ERA, and a 1.70 WHIP.

Boston Red Sox @ Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Trends: August 16, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Lake Bachar      Record this season: 1-2      ERA: 3.97
• Home Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Red Sox: 0-0

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Red Sox have lost each of their last four games as favorites against the Pirates following a win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games as favorites against the Pirates following a win.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven day games against American League opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine games as home underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Red Sox have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Patrick Sandoval      Record this season: 1-1      ERA: 3.30
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Pirates: 1-0

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won seven of their last eight games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have lost four of their last five day games after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine day games at PNC Park following a loss.
• The road team has covered the run line in nine of the last 11 games between the Red Sox and Pirates.
• The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in eight of their last 10 day games.
• The Pirates have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Red Sox’s last six day games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Pirates’ last 10 day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Red Sox’s last eight games as road favorites.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of the Pirates’ last eight games against American League opponents.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in four of his last six appearances with his team as a home underdog against the Red Sox.
• Brandon Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Nick Gonzales ranks 5th in the league in Hits (137) this season.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit at least one home run in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents.
• Patrick Sandoval has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his four previous appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Andruw Monasterio has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against NL opponents.
• Patrick Sandoval has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Willson Contreras ranks 5th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.389) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1105).
• The Pirates rank 30th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1177).
• The Red Sox rank T1st in the league for doubles this season (223).
• The Red Sox rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (460).

Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction

Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings but the Red Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 visits in Pittsburgh.

In this Red Sox vs Pirates Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -115 road favorites. I like the Red Sox in this one in a nice price on the road, as they are facing a Pirates team that will probably go for a bullpen game. Sandoval has given up more than two runs only once in his six starts this season and has been better on the road with a 2.89 ERA. On top of that, Boston has the best bullpen in baseball to relief him and their offense has been much better than the Pirates’ in their last 10 games. Take the Red Sox to win.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Boston Red Sox ML