Baltimore Orioles vs Washington Nationals Prediction 5/16/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate an Orioles vs Nationals Prediction for this MLB matchup on Saturday, May 16th in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 22-23 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the NL East. They have a 7-13 home record and are coming off a 3-2 home win against the Orioles. They will face the Mets and the Braves next.

The Nationals have a .241 batting average this season, .322 OBP and .407 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 4.95 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. CJ Abrams is the team’s best hitter with a .291 batting average, also leading the team in RBI with 36. James Wood adds a team‑high 12 home runs.

Cade Cavalli (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals, and he has a 1-2 record, 4.02 ERA and 1.59 WHIP.

Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Baltimore Orioles have a 20-25 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the AL East. They have a 8-13 away record and are coming off a 2-3 loss on the road against the Nationals. They will face the Rays and the Tigers next.

The Orioles have a .230 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .375 Slugging percentage. Baltimore’s pitching staff has a 4.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Taylor Ward is the team’s best hitter with a .265 batting average. Jeremiah Jackson leads the team in RBI with 25, and Gunnar Henderson adds a team‑high 9 home runs.

Chris Bassitt (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Orioles, and he has a 3-2 record, 5.21 ERA and 1.74 WHIP.

Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals Betting Trends: May 16, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Cade Cavalli      Record this season: 1-2      ERA: 4.02
• Home Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Orioles: –

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The underdogs have won each of the last seven games between the Orioles and Nationals.
• The Orioles have lost eight of their last nine games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last seven games between the Orioles and Nationals.
• The Nationals have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against the Orioles.
• The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games as road favorites.
• The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six games at Nationals Park.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Chris Bassitt      Record this season: 3-2      ERA: 5.21
• Road Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Nationals: 3-0

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win

• The Nationals have lost each of their last six day games against AL East opponents.
• The road team has won four of the last five games between the Orioles and Nationals.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as home underdogs following a win.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have lost the first inning in four of their last five day games against AL East opponents.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven day games at Nationals Park against AL East opponents.
• The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six day games against AL East opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Orioles’ last eight games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Nine of the last 10 games between the Orioles and Nationals at Nationals Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Orioles’ last seven games as road favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of Cade Cavalli’s last six home appearances as a starter.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• CJ Abrams has hit a home run in five of the Nationals’ last 19 day games.
• Luis Garcia has recorded two or more hits in each of his last three appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Nasim Nunez ranks T1st in the league in Steals (18) this season.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Chris Bassitt has recorded five or more strikeouts in 17 of his last 18 Saturday appearances with his team as a favorite.
• Taylor Ward has recorded at least one hit in 17 of his last 18 appearances with his team as a road favorite.
• Chris Bassitt has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances in day games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
• Jordan Westburg has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Taylor Ward ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.425) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Nationals rank 1st in the league for doubles this season (84).
• The Nationals rank 30th in the league for home runs allowed this season (64).
• The Orioles rank 28th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.259).
• The Orioles rank 27th in the league for strikeouts against this season (414).

Orioles vs Nationals Prediction

The Nationals are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings against the Orioles and are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings in Washington.

In this Orioles vs Nationals Prediction, both teams are coming at a pickem price. I like Cavalli in this matchup as he has been more stable than Bassitt and better at home. Bassitt has given up 4+ runs in two of his last three starts, has been terrible on the road and he is facing the second-best offense in baseball. I cannot trust this Orioles squad on the road with Bassitt on the mound, so I will take the Nationals on the moneyline in this one to win another one at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Washington Nationals ML