Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners Prediction 5/5/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Atlanta Braves and the Seattle Mariners meet Tuesday in MLB action from T-Mobile Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s an Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Atlanta Braves will send out Bryce Elder for the start and Elder is 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA and 36 strikeouts this season. This will be Elder’s second career start against the Mariners. George Kirby will start for the Mariners and is 4-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 34 strikeouts this season. In his career, Kirby is 1-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 12 strikeouts against Atlanta.

Atlanta Braves Recap

The Atlanta Braves come into this game looking to bounce back from their 5-4 loss at the hands of Seattle on Monday to fall to 25-11 this season. After this series, the Braves will head on the road for a series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Braves Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped

Entering Monday, Drake Baldwin has 45 hits with 5 doubles, 8 home runs and 29 RBIs while Matt Olson has 41 hits with 15 doubles, 11 homers and 31 RBIs. Ozzie Albies has added 45 hits with 8 doubles, 7 home runs and 22 RBIs and Ronald Acuna Jr. has 32 hits with 8 doubles, a triple, 2 home runs and 9 RBIs. Austin Riley has 27 hits with 6 doubles, 4 home runs and 21 RBIs and Michael Harris II has 34 hits with 4 doubles, 7 home runs and 22 RBIs and Mauricio Dubon has 32 hits with 8 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs and 18 RBIs this season. 

Seattle Mariners Recap

The Seattle Mariners come into this game looking to add on to Monday’s win over Atlanta to sit at 17-19 this season. After this series, the Mariners will head on the road for a series against the Chicago White Sox.

Mariners Halt Three-Game Slide

Going into Monday, Brendan Donovan has 17 hits with 3 doubles, 3 home runs and 8 RBIs while Luke Raley has 5 home runs and 13 RBIs this season. Cole Young’s added 33 hits with 4 doubles, a triple, 3 home runs and 19 RBIs and Cal Raleigh has 24 hits with 4 doubles, 7 home runs and 18 RBIs as well this season. Randy Arozarena has 34 hits with 9 doubles, 3 home runs and 12 RBIs as well on the year. Josh Naylor also has 27 hits with 4 home runs and 17 RBIs as well on the year. Julio Rodriguez has also added 37 hits with 7 doubles,4 home runs and 16 RBIs.

Atlanta Braves @ Seattle Mariners Betting Trends: May 5, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: George Kirby      Record this season: 4-2      ERA: 3.00
• Home Record: 3-1
• Last 5 against Braves: 1-1

Why the Seattle Mariners will win

• The Mariners have won seven of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Braves have lost five of their last six games at T-Mobile Park.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line each of their last six Tuesday games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mariners have covered the run line in four of their last five games against the Braves following a win.
• The Braves have lost the first inning in seven of their last nine road games.
• The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six Tuesday games as underdogs.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six Tuesday games as underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Bryce Elder      Record this season: 3-1      ERA: 1.88
• Road Record: 1-1
• Last 5 against Mariners: 0-0

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Braves have won each of their last six games following a loss.
• The Mariners have lost four of their last six games as home favorites.
• The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last 12 games as road underdogs.
• The Mariners have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight night games following a win.
• The Mariners have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mariners have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mariners have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as home favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mariners’ last eight home games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Braves’ last eight road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mariners’ last 14 games as home favorites.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last 12 road games against AL West opponents.

Seattle Mariners Player Prop Facts

• George Kirby has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
• George Kirby has recorded six or more strikeouts in seven of his last nine home appearances.
• Cal Raleigh has hit a home run in three of his last four home appearances.
• Cal Raleigh has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Mariners as favorites against NL East opponents.
• George Kirby ranks T9th in the league for Wins (4) this season.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Matt Olson has hit a home run in each of the Braves’ last four night games.
• Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last 16 games.
• Ozzie Albies ranks T1st in the league in Hits (46) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mariners rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (89).
• The Mariners rank T4th in the league for walks this season (143).
• The Braves rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (209).
• The Braves rank 1st in the league for hits this season (343).

Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction

I’m on the Braves here. I just think that I’ve been impressed with what Elder’s cranked out up to this point in the year and while George Kirby is still a foundational piece of a solid Mariners’ starting pitching rotation, I just feel like the offense is still too inconsistent for me to feel comfortable about backing Seattle in this spot. Atlanta has been far more consistent against right-handed pitching and in the bullpen and I think the value lies with Atlanta here.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Atlanta +125