Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 6/28/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Diamondbacks vs Rays Prediction for this MLB matchup on Sunday, June 28th in the third game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays have a 47-33 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the AL East. They have a 30-12 home record and are coming off a 4-2 home win against the Diamondbacks. They will face the Royals and the Astros next.

The Rays have a .258 batting average this season, .335 OBP and .389 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Yandy Diaz is the team’s best hitter with a .334 batting average. Jonathan Aranda leads the team in RBI with 57, while Junior Caminero adds a team-high 21 home runs.

Drew Rasmussen (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 6-4 record, 2.62 ERA and 0.88 WHIP.

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 41-41 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL West. They have a 17-24 road record and are coming off a 2-4 road defeat against the Rays. They will face the Giants and the Brewers next.

The Diamondbacks have a .239 batting average this season, .309 OBP and .386 Slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.31 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Corbin Carroll is the team’s best hitter with a .281 batting average. Ketel Marte leads the team in RBI with 48, adding a team-high 14 home runs.

Merrill Kelly (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, and he has a 5-7 record, 5.71 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: June 28, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Drew Rasmussen      Record this season: 6-4      ERA: 2.62
• Home Record: 4-2
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 0-0

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last seven road games against American League opponents.
• The Rays have won nine of their last 10 games against the Diamondbacks.
• The Rays have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games against the Diamondbacks.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games at Tropicana Field.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last seven road games against American League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last seven games as underdogs against American League opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Merrill Kelly      Record this season: 5-7      ERA: 5.71
• Road Record: 3-4
• Last 5 against Rays: 0-1

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won seven of their last eight Sunday games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Rays have lost four of their last five day games against National League opponents.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last eight Sunday games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 day games against National League opponents following a home win.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Rays’ last eight home games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eleven of the Diamondbacks’ last 12 road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in nine of the Diamondbacks’ last 10 games at Tropicana Field.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the last four games between the Diamondbacks and Rays.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Junior Caminero has hit at least one home run in four of the Rays’ last five games.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances.
• Cedric Mullins has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents.
• Yandy Diaz ranks T2nd in the league in Hits (98) this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Ketel Marte has hit at least one home run in four of his last seven road appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against AL East opponents.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded five or more strikeouts in nine of his last 10 appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
• Corbin Carroll has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Corbin Carroll is one of only two players to record 10+ Home Runs and 4+ Triples this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (575).
• The Rays rank T29th in the league for home runs this season (71).
• The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (20).
• The Diamondbacks rank 30th in the league for strikeouts this season (563).

Diamondbacks vs Rays Prediction

The Rays are 9-1 in their last 10 meetings against the Diamondbacks and have won their last five meetings in Tampa.

In this Diamondbacks vs Rays Prediction, the Rays are coming as -190 home favorites. I am with the Rays in this one as they have a big pitching edge with Rasmussen going up against Merril Kelly. Rasmussen has given up just three runs across his last four starts, while Kelly has been terrible this season and has lost his last four starts, having given up 18 runs in those games. On top of that, the Dbacks are far weaker against right-handed pitching so take the Rays to win this one at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Tampa Bay Rays ML