Cincinnati Reds vs Kansas City Royals Prediction 5/26/25 MLB Picks

The Cincinnati Reds and the Kansas City Royals meet Monday in MLB action from Kauffman Stadium. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Cincinnati Reds vs. Kansas City Royals prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Cincinnati Reds will send out Nick Martinez for the start here, and Martinez is 2-5 with a 3.43 ERA and 43 strikeouts this season. In his career, Martinez is 0-1 with a 3.26 ERA and 11 strikeouts against the Royals. The Kansas City Royals will start Michael Lorenzen here, and Lorenzen is 3-5 with a 3.77 ERA and 50 strikeouts this season. In his career, Lorenzen is 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA and 6 strikeouts against the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds Recap

The Cincinnati Reds come into this game looking to bounce back from their series loss to the Chicago Cubs, thanks to an 11-8 loss in Sunday’s series finale, dropping to 26-28 on the year. After this series, the Reds will head on the road again for a series rematch against the Cubs.

Reds Drop Four Of Their Last Five

Elly De La Cruz has 53 hits with 9 home runs, 38 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases, while TJ Friedl has 55 hits with 9 doubles and 19 RBIs with 8 stolen bases. Gavin Lux has added 46 hits with a team-high 14 doubles and 20 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has 4 home runs and 14 RBIs, and Matt McLain has added 6 homers, 17 RBIs, and 11 stolen bases as well on the year. Jose Trevino’s also chipped in 12 doubles this season.

Why the Cincinnati Reds will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Royals’ last five games at Kauffman Stadium.
• The Royals have lost each of their last four games as favorites.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 14 of the Royals’ last 15 games.
• The Royals have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games after going to extra innings.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Will Benson has hit at least one home run in each of the Reds’ last four games against AL Central opponents.
• Will Benson has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Reds’ last four games against AL Central opponents.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 road appearances against AL Central opponents.
• Jeimer Candelario has scored at least one run in each of his last nine road appearances against AL Central opponents.
• Jose Trevino has recorded a Double in each of his last six appearances with the Reds as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Jose Trevino has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine road appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Elly De La Cruz ranks 4th in the league in Steals (17) this season.

Kansas City Royals Recap

The Kansas City Royals come into this game looking to build on their 2-1 win over the Twins in Sunday’s series finale, improving to 29-25 on the year. After this series, the Royals will square off against the Detroit Tigers in a home division series.

Royals Split Last 8 Games

Bobby Witt Jr. has a team-high 63 hits with 20 doubles and 19 stolen bases, along with 3 triples, 5 home runs, and 28 RBIs, while Vinnie Pasquantino has 52 hits with 6 doubles, a triple, 8 home runs, and 30 RBIs. Maikel Garcia added 59 hits with 13 doubles, 5 home runs, and 25 RBIs, and 10 stolen bases, and Salvador Perez also has 3 home runs and 24 RBIs, but also has the unfortunate distinction of leading the Royals with 48 strikeouts so far this season.

Why the Kansas City Royals will win

• The Royals have won each of their last eight home games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Reds have lost eight of their last nine day games against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Royals have covered the run line in each of their last eight day games against National League opponents.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine day games against American League opponents following a home loss.

Kansas City Royals Player Prop Facts

• Bobby Witt Jr. has hit a home run in two of the Royals’ last three day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Michael Massey has recorded a Double in each of the Royals’ last four day games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Maikel Garcia has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Royals’ last eight day games.
• Vinnie Pasquantino has recorded at least one Single in each of the Royals’ last eight games.
• Bobby Witt Jr. has scored at least one run in each of the Royals’ last eight day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Michael Lorenzen has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances.
• Maikel Garcia has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances against NL Central opponents.
• Michael Lorenzen has recorded a win in each of his last four appearances at Kauffman Stadium against opponents that held a losing record.
• Bobby Witt Jr. ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (19) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Reds’ last eight games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Fourteen of the Royals’ last 17 home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kansas City Royals Prediction

I’m on the Royals here. I get the case to be made for the Reds, as Nick Martinez has actually been pitching well up to this point over the last month. On the other side, the Royals have been playing some decent baseball, and Michael Lorenzen has been outstanding at home this season. I think the Royals draw first blood to start the series, and I don’t think this run for Martinez right now is sustainable. Give me the Royals in this one.