San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 5/25/25 MLB Picks

The San Diego Padres are visiting the Atlanta Braves on Sunday, May 25th at the Truist Park in the fourth and final game of this series, with the Braves having a 2-1 lead. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction. We will examine:

The Atlanta Braves’ recent form and player performance

The San Diego Padres’ recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Atlanta Braves

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the San Diego Padres

Recent betting trends in games played between the San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves game

Atlanta Braves Preview

The Atlanta Braves have a 24-26 record this season and are sitting in third place in the NL East. The Braves have a 16-8 home record and 19-28 in over/under. They are coming off a 7-1 home victory over the Padres and have back-to-back wins. Under is 6-3 in their last 9 games, and are playing the Red Sox and the Phillies next.

The Braves have a .248 batting average this season, a .320 OBP, and a .393 Slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 3.75 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Austin Riley leads the Braves with 57 hits, adding a team-high 28 RBI, while Marcell Ozuna is the team’s best hitter with a .273 batting average. Michael Harris II leads the team in RBI, with 31.

Spencer Schwellenbach (R) will take the mound for the Braves, and he has a 3-3 record, 3.52 ERA, and 1.06 WHIP. He has been better at home with a 2.63 ERA across six home starts, and he is coming off a game where he allowed 4 earned runs across 7 innings pitched. In his previous start against the Padres this season, he had a shutout performance in 6 innings pitched.  

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 28-22 record this season and are sitting in third place in the NL West. They have a 12-14 road record, and are 21-28 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 1-7 road defeat by the Braves, and are 1-8 in their last 9 games. Under is 8-2 in their last 10 games, and are playing the Marlins and the Pirates next. 

The Padres have a .253 batting average this season, a .319 OBP, and a .387 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.53 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.  Manny Machado leads the Padres with 58 hits and a team-high .317 batting average. Gavin Sheets leads the team in RBI, with 29. 

Dylan Cease (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 1-3 record, 4.50 ERA, and 1.24 WHIP. He has been weaker on the road, with a 5.74 ERA in five road starts, and in his previous start against the Braves, he gave up 3 runs in 4.1 innings of work. Dylan Cease has a record of 2-0 with an ERA of 4.19 and 29 strikeouts in 4 appearances against the Braves in his career.

Why the Atlanta Braves will win

• The Padres have lost seven of their last eight games.
• The home team has won seven of the last eight games between the Padres and Braves.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games.
• The Braves have covered the run line in five of their last six games after playing the previous day.
• The Braves have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against the Padres at Truist Park.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at Truist Park.
• The Braves have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against the Padres at Truist Park.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last seven games as underdogs against the Braves following a road loss.
• The Braves have lost each of their last five games as favorites against the Padres following a home win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as road underdogs against the Braves following a loss.
• The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as home favorites against the Padres following a win.
• The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight Sunday day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Sunday day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Braves’ last nine day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Padres’ last four games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Padres’ last eight games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last five day games against National League opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Braves rank T6th in the league for hits allowed this season (390).
• The Braves rank T23rd in the league for doubles this season (71).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (351).
• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.224).

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

The Padres are 7-2 in their last 9 meetings against the Braves, and under is 5-0 in their last 5 meetings. In this San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, the Braves are coming as -145 home favorites. The Padres have the better overall record, but they have been below average on the road, while the Braves have been very strong at home. The Padres are also on a free fall lately, and while both teams have almost identical bullpen ERAs and batting averages, the Braves have the pitching advantage in Schwellenbach. I don’t see the Padres breaking out of their slump in this one, so take the Atlanta Braves on the moneyline.