Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Prediction 5/17/25 MLB Picks

The Tampa Bay Rays and Miami Marlins meet Saturday in MLB action at loanDepot park. Here’s a Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Prediction. This article will include a Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Pick.

Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 20-24 on the year and play the Astros, Blue Jays, and Twins next. The Tampa Bay Rays are batting .244 on the season, have a .308 OBP, and a .369 slugging percentage. The Tampa Bay Rays pitching staff has a 3.97 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Jonathan Aranda leads the Tampa Bay Rays with 41 hits and 20 RBI, while Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero have combined for 78 hits and 41 RBI. 

Drew Rasmussen gets the ball for the Tampa Bay Rays, and he is 1-4 with a 3.38 ERA and 35 strikeouts this season. Rasmussen is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 15 strikeouts in his career against the Miami Marlins.

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 17-26 on the year and play the Cubs, Angels, and Padres next. The Miami Marlins are batting .247 on the season, have a .313 OBP, and a .384 slugging percentage. The Miami Marlins’ pitching staff has a 5.47 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP. Xavier Edwards leads the Miami Marlins with 45 hits and 11 RBI, while Kyle Stowers and Eric Wagaman have combined for 77 hits and 42 RBI.

Sandy Alcantara gets the ball for the Miami Marlins, and he is 2-5 with an 8.10 ERA and 31 strikeouts this season. Alcantara is 2-3 with a 3.44 ERA and 34 strikeouts in his career against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Rays have lost four of their last five games as favorites after playing the previous day.
• The underdogs have won four of the Rays’ last five games.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last seven home games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three road games against NL East opponents.

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last six games against the Marlins following a loss.
• The Marlins have lost each of their last five home games against the Rays following a home win.
• The Rays have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games against the Rays following a home win.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in three of their last four day games.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in four of their last five road games.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in three of the Marlins’ last seven games as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against the Rays.
• Jesus Sanchez has scored at least one run in four of the Marlins’ last five games against AL East opponents at LoanDepot Park.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one RBI in three of his last four appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one Single in each of his six previous home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
• Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his six previous home appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in six of his last 22 road appearances with the Rays against NL opponents.
• Danny Jansen has recorded a Double in six of his last eight appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL opponents.
• Josh Lowe has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last five appearances with the Rays as road favorites against NL opponents.
• Taylor Walls has scored a run in each of his last three appearances with the Rays as road favorites against NL opponents.
• Drew Rasmussen has recorded six or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances with the Rays as road favorites against NL opponents.
• Josh Lowe has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight appearances.
• Danny Jansen has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL opponents.
• Jonathan Aranda ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.315) this season.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Prediction

The Rays are the better team and should be favored, but the value is with the Marlins and the plus money. The Rays have lost six of the last seven games Rasmussen has pitched, and he’s allowed nine hits and six runs in his last 9.1 innings. In 10 road innings, Rasmussen has a 4.50 ERA and a .222 allowed batting average. The Marlins are coming off a couple of nice underdog wins, and while Alcantara has been a disaster this season with an 8.10 ERA and 1.64 WHIP, we know what he’s capable of when he’s right. Alcantara just won the CY Young, so I’m not ready to give up on him just yet. There’s still value in the underdog role with one of the better pitchers in baseball, struggles or not. Give me the fish and the more favorable price.