San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 5/4/25 MLB Picks

The projected starting pitcher for the Padres is Stephen Kolek, who will get his first start in the MLB on his season debut.

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates (12-22, 7-11 Home) lost six of the previous seven and ten of the last 14 games. They will lose their third consecutive series after dropping the first two games of this series against the Padres. Prior to that, the Pirates lost to the Cubs and Dodgers. Bailey Falter pitched for 7.0 innings in a no-decision in the latest 2-1 defeat, allowing one run on two hits with six strikeouts and two walks. David Bednar took the loss.

This year, the Pirates average 3.42 runs per game (27th in the MLB) on a .224/.305/.339 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Pirates’ staff has a 4.34 ERA (22nd) and 1.27 WHIP (16th). Oneil Cruz leads the Pirates with a .252 batting average, eight home runs, and 18 RBI this season.

Andrew Heaney will take the mound for the Pirates on Sunday. The 33-year-old left-hander has a 2-2 record in six starts this year with a 2.50 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 36.0 innings.

Why the Pirates will beat the Padres

• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven day games against National League opponents following a road win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in three of their last four games as favorites against NL West opponents following a loss.
• The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 5 innings in nine of their last 12 games as home favorites against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Padres' last seven road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Pirates' last five games as favorites against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in six of the Padres' last seven games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 13 of the Pirates' last 16 games as home favorites against NL West opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank T28th in the league for doubles this season (41).
• The Pirates rank 27th in the league for runs scored this season (114).
• The Padres rank 2nd in the league for ERA this season (2.84).
• The Padres rank T2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (25).

Padres vs Pirates Prediction

The Padres won nine of the previous ten H2H encounters, including each of the last eight. The Padres will start Kolek in place of Pivetta, who will open the next series against the Yankees. Kolek never started a game in the MLB, and he also didn't play this year after appearing in 42 games as a reliever last season. I am backing the Pirates to exploit this situation and score multiple runs off Kolek and secure the win. Andrew Heaney, on the other hand, has been solid this year; he hasn't allowed more than a run in four of his six starts. Go with the Pirates.