Mets vs Cardinals Prediction 5/4/25 MLB Picks

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 22-11 this season after they won game one by a score of 9-3 on Friday night. New York was down 3-2 in the third, but they scored the last seven runs in the game to pull away with the win. The Mets recorded 17 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Alvarez, who went 3-5 with three RBIs in the win. New York started Holmes, who allowed eight hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Butto and Stanek fired three scoreless innings out of the bullpen. 

Prior to this series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks and split four games with the Nationals. New York has split their last six games, and they are currently first in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 2.69 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 159 runs with a .250 batting average and a .329 on-base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with eight home runs and 30 RBIs, while Brandon Nimmo has added seven home runs and 22 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for game one is Blake Tidwell, who is making his first appearance of the season. The projected starting pitcher for New York in game two is Tylor Megill, who is 3-2 with a 1.74 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 31.0 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Cardinals will beat the Mets 

• The Cardinals have won seven of their last eight games as home underdogs following a loss.
• The Mets have lost each of their last five games as road favorites following a road win.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites on the first leg of a doubleheader.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games following a home loss.

Why the Mets will beat the Cardinals

• The Mets have won each of their last six games against NL Central opponents.
• The Cardinals have lost seven of their last eight games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games at Busch Stadium.
• The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games at Busch Stadium.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cardinals have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Cardinals' last six home games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Mets' last five games as favorites against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Cardinals' last six games as underdogs against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in four of the Mets' last five games.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Willson Contreras has hit a home run in three of his last six home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Willson Contreras has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances at Busch Stadium against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Masyn Winn has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances at Busch Stadium against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Masyn Winn has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances at Busch Stadium against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Erick Fedde has recorded four or more strikeouts in five of his last six home appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Brendan Donovan has recorded at least one hit in each of the Cardinals' last 11 games as home underdogs.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has recorded a Double in each of the Mets' last three games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Pete Alonso has hit a home run in four of the Mets' last five games at Busch Stadium against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Mets' last six games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Pete Alonso has scored at least one run in eight of the Mets' last nine road games.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets' last eight games at Busch Stadium.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets' last seven road games against the Cardinals.

Mets vs Cardinals Prediction 

New York comes into this contest with one of the best records in the MLB to start the season, but they are just 9-8 on the road this year. The Mets have scored at least eight runs in three of their last five games, and they have one of the best team ERA in the MLB. St. Louis is 10-6 at home, but their pitching staff has allowed nine runs in back-to-back games. In game one, I think we are going to see plenty of offense, as I don’t trust either starting pitcher. In game two, I really like how Megill has pitched this season, so I will take the Mets -1.5.