San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 5/2/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the San Diego Padres

Recent betting trends in games played between the San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates game

Pittsburgh Pirates Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a 12-19 record this season and are sitting in last place in the NL Central. They have a 7-9 home record, and are 14-16 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-8 home defeat by the Chicago Cubs, and are 1-4 in their last 5 games. Over is 3-1-1 in their last 5 games are playing the Cardinals and the Braves next. The Pirates have a .224 batting average this season, a .303 OBP, and a .339 slugging percentage. Pittsburgh’s pitching staff has a 4.23 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Bryan Reynolds leads the Pirates with 30 hits, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa is the team’s best hitter with a .269 batting average. Oneil Cruz leads the team with 17 RBI and 8 home runs.  

Mitch Keller (L) will take the mound for the Pirates, and he has a 1-2 record, 3.97 ERA, and 1.29 WHIP. He has been weaker at home, with a 4.91 ERA. He has given up at least two runs in each of his last three starts, and he was torched in his only start against the Padres last season, giving up 8 runs in 5 innings of work.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have a 19-11 record this season and are sitting in second place in the NL West. They have a 4-7 road record, and are 12-17 in over/under. The Padres are coming off a 5-3 home win against the Giants, for their second straight win, following a four-game losing streak. They are playing the Yankees and the Rockies next. The Padres have a .259 batting average this season, a .327 OBP, and a .391 Slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 2.86 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.  Fernando Tatis Jr leads the Padres with 39 hits and a team-high .345 batting average, adding 18 RBI and 8 home runs.

Dylan Cease (R) will take the mound for the Padres, and he has a 1-2 record, 5.76 ERA, and 1.62 WHIP. He has been terrible on the road this season, with an 11.00 ERA and 11 earned runs in just 9 innings pitched. He has given up at least two runs in each of his last four starts, but his only start against the Pirates last season was a shutout.

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won each of their last four games as underdogs following a home loss.
• The Padres have lost seven of their last eight road games following a win.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight road games following a win.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last five games against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Pirates have won the first inning in three of their last four home games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against the Padres at PNC Park.
• The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six road games against NL Central opponents.

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last nine games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have lost 12 of their last 13 games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last nine games against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games at PNC Park.
• The Padres have won the first inning in seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six home games.

Total Runs Facts

• Four of the Pirates' last five night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Padres' last five road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in 10 of the Pirates' last 11 games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Padres' last five games as favorites.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pirates rank 28th in the league for home runs this season (24).
• The Pirates rank 28th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.339).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (202).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (90).

San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

The Padres won all six meetings against the Pirates last season, winning all three meetings in Pittsburgh. Under is 5-3 in their last 8 overall meetings, but the over is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings in Pittsburgh.

In this San Diego Padres vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction, the Padres are coming as -150 road favorites. The Padres are rightfully favored, as they have been the far better team this season, but they have been significantly worse on the road, where they have a below-average record. Both pitchers have been struggling to start the season, as they have a combined 9.73 ERA, and their home/away splits are even worse.

I will not lay so much juice with the Padres on the road, and instead, I expect both of these pitchers to continue struggling, so expect runs in the first 5 innings. Take the over 4 runs in the first 5 innings of this game.