Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 5/1/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Philadelphia Phillies

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Washington Nationals

Recent betting trends in games played between the Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies game

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 17-13 record this season and are sitting in second place in the NL East. They have an 11-4 home record, and are 15-15 in over/under. They are coming off a 7-2 home victory over the Nationals, which was their fourth straight. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 games. The Phillies have a .251 batting average this season, a .336 OBP, and a .385 Slugging percentage. Philly’s pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Trea Turner leads the Phillies with 31 hits, while Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 23 RBI and 9 home runs. Bryson Scott leads the team in batting average with .297.

Taijuan Walker (R) will take the mound for the Phillies, and he has a 1-2 record, 2.78 ERA, and 1.37 WHIP. In his previous start against the Nats last season, he struggled as he gave up 3 earned runs in just 4.2 innings of work, and the Phillies lost 4-6. 

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 13-18 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place in the NL East. The Nationals have a 4-11 road record and are 16-14 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-7 road defeat by the Phillies, and are 1-4 in their last 5 games. Over is 4-0 in their last 4 games. The Nationals have a .240 batting average this season, a .306 OBP, and a .389 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 5.27 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Keibert Ruiz leads the Nationals with 31 hits and a team-high .301 batting average. Nathaniel Lowe leads the team in RBI with 24.

Brad Lord (R) will take the mound for the Nationals, and he has a 0-3 record, 4.67 ERA, and 1.73 WHIP. He has at least 2 earned runs in his last three starts, having pitched just 4 innings in each game, for a 5.95 ERA. 

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Nationals have lost each of their last 10 night games against NL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Phillies have won each of their last nine Thursday games against the Nationals.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against NL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last three games after playing the previous day.
• The Phillies have won the first inning in five of their last six games against opponents that held a winning record at Citizens Bank Park.
• The Phillies have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games at Citizens Bank Park against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Nationals have covered the run line in six of their last seven games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 12 games against NL East opponents following a home win.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Phillies' last 10 home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Nationals' last seven road games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last six night games against NL East opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in eight of the Nationals' last 10 road games against NL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (297).
• The Phillies rank T3rd in the league for walks this season (124).
• The Nationals rank T3rd in the league for triples this season (6).
• The Nationals rank 27th in the league for ERA this season (5.27).

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

The Phillies have won both games of this series with a combined 14-8. They are 5-1 in their last 6 meetings against the Nats, and the over is 8-1 in their last 9 meetings.

In this Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -170 home favorites. The Phillies are rightfully favored, as they have a better record this season and have been very strong at home, while the Nats are struggling on the road. I don’t trust any of those pitchers, as Lord has been terrible this season, and while Walker looks sharp so far, he is due to some negative regression, as he has a 3.93 xERA.

Walker also had a 7.10 ERA and 1.72 WHIP last season, and both teams are bottom-4 in bullpen ERA, with 12.44 combined. Both teams are also a 7-1 to the over in their last 8 games combined, so all things point to another high-scoring affair. Take the over 9.5 runs.