Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres Prediction 4/26/25 MLB Picks

Ryan Pepiot will take the mound for the Rays on Saturday. The 27-year-old right-hander has a 1-3 record in five starts this year with a 4.82 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 28.0 innings.

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres (17-9, 12-2 Home) are experiencing a drop in form after losing five of the previous seven games. The Padres failed to score a single run in back-to-back games, against the Detroit Tigers and in Game 1 of this series against the Rays. In the recent 1-0 defeat to Tampa Bay, Michael King took the loss after allowing one run on four hits with nine strikeouts and one walk over 5.0 innings of work.

This year, the Padres average 3.96 runs per game (22nd in the MLB) on a .260/.329/.394 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Padres’ staff has a 2.80 ERA (2nd) and 1.10 WHIP (4th). Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the Padres with a .340 batting average, eight home runs, and 17 RBI this season.

The projected starting pitcher for the Padres is Dylan Cease, who is 1-1 in five starts this season, with a 6.04 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 25.1 innings.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Padres' last seven home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in eight of the Padres' last nine games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in five of the Rays' last six games at Petco Park.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 2nd in the league for ERA this season (2.80).
• The Padres rank 2nd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.207).
• The Rays rank T5th in the league for steals this season (30).
• The Rays are one of only five teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.

Rays vs Padres Prediction

The teams have traded victories over the past few years, as each recorded five in the previous ten H2H encounters. I know the Padres failed to score in their last two games, but they will score multiple runs in the opening few innings against Ryan Pepiot. The right-hander allowed 3+ runs in each of his last three starts, while he allowed a .278 BA in 18 at-bats against the Padres in his career. On the other hand, Dylan Cease managed to lower his ERA with two solid starts, but I'd be surprised if he shut the Rays out in the first five or six innings here. That said, I am backing Tampa Bay to score multiple runs off Cease, the same goes for the Padres. Last night I predicted Under and it hit big time. Now, I am going with Over.