New York Yankees vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 4/5/25 MLB Picks

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New York Yankees

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates

Recent betting trends in games played between the Yankees and Pirates

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Yankees vs Pirates game

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The Yankees had a great opening series this year versus the Milwaukee Brewers. New York bagged a sweep in that matchup, winning 4-2, 20-9, and 12-3. In their second series of the season versus the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Yankees lost the first two games 7-5 and 4-3 before bagging a sweep-preventing 9-7 win in the finale. In that Thursday win, the Yankees’ Trent Grisham (three RBI; three hits), Jazz Chisholm (two RBI), and Aaron Judge (three hits; two runs; four RBI) each had a homer. 

In the Friday series opener versus the Pirates, the Yankees scored multiple runs in four different innings on the way to 13 team hits in a 9-4 victory. Aaron Judge put up a homer and two RBI, while Oswaldo Cabrera had four RBI and three hits. Starting pitcher Max Fried lasted 5.2 frames with one earned on six hits and a walk. 

It’ll be Marcus Stroman in the starting pitcher role for the Yankees on Saturday. This year, Stroman has one start under his belt so far, going 4.2 innings with three earned runs in a no-decision on March 30. Over his career, Stroman is 87-85 with a 3.73 ERA in 262 games (253 starts). 

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

Over on the Pirates’ side, they kicked off their season with a matchup against the Miami Marlins. Pittsburgh managed a 4-3 win on March 28 but otherwise dropped the other three games for a series loss. The second set versus the Tampa Bay Rays wasn’t much better, as the Pirates lost 6-1 and 7-0 before a 4-2 victory on Wednesday. In that final win, Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes logged 7.0 clean innings with three hits, no walks, and six strikeouts. Oneil Cruz added a homer with two hits and two RBI. 

Matched up against the Yankees in the opener on Friday, Pittsburgh got three RBI and a homer from Ke’Bryan Hayes. Bryan Reynolds managed a solo homer as well. Mitch Keller went 3.2 innings in the start, giving up seven earned on eight hits and four walks in a rough outing. 

It’ll be Bailey Falter in the starting role for the Pirates on Saturday. This season so far, Falter has one start, going 6.0 innings with two earned runs. Over 89 career games (60 starts), Falter is 18-23 with a 4.60 ERA overall. 

Why the Pittsburgh Pirates will win

• The Pirates have won three of their last four games as home underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Yankees have lost five of their last nine games as road favorites against National League opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in seven of their last eight Saturday day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four road games against National League opponents following a road win.

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Yankees have won each of their last eight games as road favorites after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have lost five of their last six games.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven day games against American League opponents following a home loss.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in eight of their last nine road games after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games at PNC Park against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Pirates have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four home games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Pirates' last four games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Yankees' last seven day games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in eight of the Yankees' last nine games as favorites.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Pirates' last four home games.

Yankees vs Pirates Prediction 

I’ll stay with New York. The Yankees got a pretty shaky outing from Stroman in his first start this year, though, so he’ll need a bounce-back effort. Stroman pitched 4.2 innings with three earned on five hits and two walks versus the Brewers on March 30. As for Falter, he didn’t pitch too badly versus the Marlins on March 29, logging two earned on seven hits and no walks in 6.0 frames during a no-decision. 

On Friday, the Yankees were pretty dominant most of the way. New York was ahead 7-1 by the end of the fourth inning and weren’t in much danger even after Pittsburgh’s three-run seventh. It’ll be tough to topple the Yankees in game two.