Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction 3/31/25 MLB Picks

The projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox is Sean Newcomb, who went 1-0 with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP over 10.0 innings pitched in 2024.

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles (2-2, 0-0 Home) showed us two faces in the opening series against the Toronto Blue Jays. In two wins, the Orioles were excellent offensively and combined for 21 runs, while in two defeats, they managed to score only three runs. Last season, Baltimore had a great 91-71 record and made it to the Wild Card round but lost two home games to the Kansas City Royals.

This year, the Orioles average 6.00 runs per game (5th in the MLB) on a .273/.338/.525 slash line. The Orioles’ pitching staff has a 4.50 ERA (19th) and 1.41 WHIP (25th). Cedric Mullins is the best offensive player for the Orioles, with a .313 batting average, two home runs, and six RBI last season.

Cade Povich will take the mound for the Orioles on Monday. The 24-year-old southpaw went 3-9 in 16 starts last season, with a 5.20 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 79.2 innings. It was his first season in the majors.

Why the Red Sox will beat the Orioles

• The Red Sox have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Orioles have lost each of their last four games as home favorites.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as road underdogs against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against the Red Sox at Oriole Park at Camden Yards following a road loss.

Why the Orioles will beat the Red Sox

• The Orioles have won 11 of their last 12 games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Red Sox have lost five of their last six games after playing the previous day.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in 13 of their last 14 games against AL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in three of their last four games against AL East opponents.
• The Orioles have led after 5 innings in five of their last six home openers.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Red Sox's last nine road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Orioles' last five day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Red Sox's last seven games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Orioles' last four day games.

Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction

The teams have traded victories in the past two years, as each recorded five over the previous ten encounters. Both teams have plenty of injured pitchers, and that's why they'll field Newcomb and Povich as starters on Monday. That's a great chance for the Over bettors, like myself, to make a profit, and I am going with Over because I think both starters will struggle. Especially Newcomb, who played just 14 (started two) games in the last two years. Povich started two games against the Red Sox last year and averaged a 4.91 ERA over 11.0 innings. Expect a lot of runs early on.