Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction MLB Picks 9/21/24

Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are 88-66 this season and they have lost three of their last four games. Milwaukee has dropped the first two games in this series and they have allowed 12 runs in the series. Prior to this series, the Brewers won two out of three against the Phillies, won two out of three against the Diamondbacks, and won two out of three against the Giants. Milwaukee is 5-4 in their last nine games and they are first in the NL Central. 

The Milwaukee pitching staff has a 3.66 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average. The Brewers' offense has scored 740 runs with a .249 batting average and a .327 on-base percentage. Willy Adames is batting .248 with 32 home runs and 109 RBI’s for the Brewers this season.

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Milwaukee is Aaron Civale, who is 7-8 with a 4.48 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP over 150.2 innings pitched this year. Civale has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Arizona is Merrill Kelly, who is 4-0 with a 4.00 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 63.0 innings pitched this season. Kelly has allowed two earned runs or fewer in two of his last three outings. 

Why the Diamondbacks will beat the Brewers

• The Diamondbacks have won seven of their last eight games at American Family Field.
• The Brewers have lost four of their last six games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The road team has covered the run line in each of the last eight games between the Diamondbacks and Brewers.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Brewers' last seven games as favorites against National League opponents has gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Diamondbacks' last five night games as underdogs has gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Diamondbacks' last three games as road underdogs.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• William Contreras has hit a home run in three of the Brewers' last four games at American Family Field against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Aaron Civale has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances at American Family Field.
• William Contreras has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Brewers' last four home games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Jackson Chourio has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Brewers' last three games as favorites against NL opponents.
• Aaron Civale has recorded five or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 12 home appearances against NL opponents.
• Brice Turang has recorded at least one Single in each of the Brewers' last six games against NL West opponents.
• Willy Adames has recorded at least one hit in each of the Brewers' last eight games as home favorites against the Diamondbacks.
• Christian Yelich has scored at least one run in each of his last four appearances against NL West opponents at American Family Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Eugenio Suarez has hit a home run in each of the Diamondbacks' last two games as road underdogs.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded a win in each of his last three road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ketel Marte has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Diamondbacks' last five road games against NL Central opponents.
• Corbin Carroll has scored at least one run in each of the Diamondbacks' last seven games as underdogs against NL opponents.
• Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Merrill Kelly has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last seven road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Eugenio Suarez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks' last 11 road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Gabriel Moreno has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Pavin Smith has recorded at least one Double in three of the Diamondbacks' last four road games against NL opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Milwaukee Brewers are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
• The Milwaukee Brewers rank 4th in the league for runs allowed this season (612).
• The Arizona Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for on-base percentage this season (.337).
• The Arizona Diamondbacks rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (1389).

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction 

Arizona has picked up the first two wins in this series, as they try to maintain their lead for a wild card spot in the NL. The Diamondbacks are 44-35 on the road this year, while the Brewers are 44-32 at home. Milwaukee is just above .500 in their last nine games and they have very little to play for right now. Both of these pitchers have been pretty good in recent outings, but I have to ride the hot hand with the Diamondbacks here.