Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction MLB Picks 9/10/24

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 68-76 this season and they have won three of their last five games. Pittsburgh won game one in this series by a score of 3-2 on Monday night. Prior to this series, the Pirates split four games with the Nationals, won two out of three against the Cubs, and lost two out of three against the Guardians. Pittsburgh is 5-3 in their last eight games and they are last in the NL Central. 

The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.15 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .252 opponent batting average. The Pirates' offense has scored 610 runs with a .235 batting average and a .302 on-base percentage. Bryan Reynolds is batting .275 with 22 home runs and 82 RBI’s for the Pirates this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Adam Oller, who is 1-2 with a 4.15 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 21.2 innings pitched this year. Oller has allowed four earned runs in two of his four starts this year. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh is Carmen Mlodzinski, who is 2-5 with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP over 41.0 innings pitched this season. Mlodzinski is expected to work as an opener and only pitch one or two innings. 

Why the Pirates will beat the Marlins

• The Pirates have won 13 of their last 14 night games against the Marlins following a home win.
• The Marlins have lost 13 of their last 16 night games against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Tuesday night games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in five of their last six games against the Marlins.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last three games.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in each of their last three night games.

Why the Marlins will beat the Pirates

• The Marlins have won each of their last four games as road underdogs following a loss.
• The Pirates have lost six of their last eight games as home favorites following a win.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight home games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last four games as road underdogs following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Marlins' last eight night games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Pirates' last 10 night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last five games as underdogs.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Pirates' last four night games at PNC Park.

Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 

Pittsburgh was able to pick up the win in game one of this series and they are trying to crawl out of last place in the NL Central. The Pirates are 35-38 at home, while the Marlins are just 26-43 on the road this year. Miami has been one of the worst teams in baseball this season and they are starting Adam Oller, who has had two good starts and two bad starts so far. Pittsburgh has played well over the last week, but with both teams in the bottom half of the MLB in runs scored, I think we are going to see a lower-scoring game here. Take the under in this matchup.