Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction MLB Picks 9/9/24

Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are 72-71 this season and they have lost six of their last eight games. Boston is coming from a series win against the White Sox, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Red Sox lost all three against the Mets, lost two out of three against the Tigers, and split four games with the Blue Jays. Boston is 5-11 in their last 16 games and they are third in the AL East. 

The Boston pitching staff has a 4.17 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and a .247 opponent batting average. The Red Sox offense has scored 676 runs with a .256 batting average and a .321 on-base percentage. Rafael Devers is batting .278 with 28 home runs and 81 RBI’s for the Red Sox this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Cade Povich, who is 2-7 with a 5.76 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP over 59.1 innings pitched this season. Povich has allowed five earned runs in two of his last three starts but did throw 7.1 scoreless innings in his last start. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Brayan Bello, who is 12-7 with a 4.75 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 142.0 innings pitched this year. Bello has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last five starts. 

Why the Red Sox will beat the Orioles

• The Red Sox have won four of their last five night games against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Orioles have lost each of their last three games after playing the previous day.
• The Red Sox have covered the run line in six of their last seven night games against American League opponents.
• The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Red Sox's last seven games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Orioles' last seven games as underdogs against the Red Sox have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Orioles' last five Monday games against American League opponents.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Jarren Duran has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox's last three night games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Wilyer Abreu has recorded an RBI in each of his last four appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a winning record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one Single in each of the Red Sox's last eight games at Fenway Park against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one total base in each of the Red Sox's last nine home games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Triston Casas has scored at least one run in eight of his last nine appearances against the Orioles after playing the previous day.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one Double in four of his last five appearances at Fenway Park against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded at least one hit in each of the Red Sox's last nine games at Fenway Park against AL opponents that held a winning record.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Gunnar Henderson has hit a home run in four of the Orioles' last five games against the Red Sox.
• Gunnar Henderson has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Orioles' last four games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Cedric Mullins has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances with the Orioles as road underdogs against the Red Sox.
• Cedric Mullins has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 13 road appearances against the Red Sox.
• Cedric Mullins has scored at least one run in 10 of his last 11 appearances at Fenway Park.
• Gunnar Henderson has recorded at least one Double in three of the Orioles' last four games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Cedric Mullins has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 road appearances against the Red Sox.

Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 

Baltimore comes into this game after losing two out of three games at home against the Rays, where their offense completely disappeared. The Orioles are currently second in the AL East and can’t afford to fall into a slump now. Baltimore is 40-29 on the road this year, while Boston is 33-39 at home. The Red Sox have struggled over the last few weeks, but they have had success with Bello on the mound, as they are 9-3 in his last 12 starts. I think we could see a higher-scoring game here, but I am going to side with Bello and the Red Sox.