Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction MLB Picks 9/7/24

Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 66-74 this season and they have won three of their last four games. Pittsburgh won game one in this series by a score of 9-4 on Thursday. Prior to this series, the Pirates won two out of three against the Cubs, lost two out of three against the Guardians, and lost all three against the Cubs. Pittsburgh is 4-6 in their last 10 games and they are last in the NL Central. 

The Pittsburgh pitching staff has a 4.15 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .252 opponent batting average. The Pirates' offense has scored 591 runs with a .235 batting average and a .302 on-base percentage. Bryan Reynolds is batting .280 with 22 home runs and 77 RBI’s for the Pirates this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Washington in game one is DJ Herz, who is 2-7 with a 4.09 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 70.1 innings pitched this year. Herz has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Washington in game two is Mitchell Parker, who is 7-9 with a 4.27 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 132.2 innings pitched this year. Parker has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh in game one is Luis Ortiz, who is 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 113.0 innings pitched this year. Ortiz has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Pittsburgh in game two is Mitch Keller, who is 11-9 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 157.2 innings pitched this season. Keller has allowed three earned runs or more in four of his last five outings. 

Why the Pirates will beat the Nationals

• The Nationals have lost each of their last eight night games against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Pirates have won each of their last four night games against NL East opponents.
• The Pirates have covered the run line in each of their last five games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Pirates have led after 3 innings in each of their last three home games.

Why the Nationals will beat the Pirates

• The Pirates have lost five of their last six games as home favorites following a win.
• The Nationals have won three of their last four games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents following a road loss.
• The Pirates have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six home games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in four of their last five road games against NL Central opponents following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Nationals' last 10 night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Pirates' last four home games has gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Pirates' last three games at PNC Park.

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts

• Andrew McCutchen has hit a home run in five of his last eight home appearances against the Nationals.
• Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one RBI in seven of his last eight appearances in night games.
• Jared Triolo has scored at least one run in each of the Pirates' last six games as favorites.
• Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight home appearances against the Nationals after playing the previous day.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of the Pirates' last nine games at PNC Park.
• Oneil Cruz has recorded a Double in each of the Pirates' last three home games against NL opponents.
• Yasmani Grandal has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances with the Pirates as favorites.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Joey Gallo has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Pirates at PNC Park.
• CJ Abrams has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last three appearances with the Nationals as underdogs against the Pirates.
• Joey Gallo has recorded two or more total bases in each of his five previous appearances with his team as an underdog against the Pirates.
• CJ Abrams has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances with the Nationals as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Ildemaro Vargas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances with the Nationals as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• Ildemaro Vargas has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances with the Nationals as underdogs against NL Central opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 27th in the league for strikeouts this season (1298).
• The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 26th in the league for home runs this season (137).
• The Washington Nationals rank 28th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.261).
• The Washington Nationals rank 28th in the league for hits allowed this season (1254).

Washington Nationals vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction 

These two teams opened this series on Thursday night, but Friday was postponed, so we will have a doubleheader here. Both teams have struggled over the last two weeks, but Pittsburgh is close to being a .500 team at home. In game one of the doubleheader, I really like how Ortiz has pitched this season, so I am going to side with the Pirates. In game two, I don’t love either starting pitcher, but I am going to fade Keller. Back the Nationals in the second game.