Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction MLB Picks 8/31/24

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 79-56 this season and they have alternated wins and losses in their last four games. Philadelphia won game one in this series by a score of 5-4 but lost on Friday. Prior to this series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Astros, won two out of three against the Royals, and lost two out of three against the Braves. Philadelphia is 5-2 in their last seven games and they are first in the NL East. 

The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.72 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP, and a .239 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 653 runs with a .258 batting average and a .327 on-base percentage. Bryce Harper is batting .282 with 26 home runs and 76 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Max Fried, who is 8-7 with a 3.50 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 133.2 innings pitched this year. Fried has allowed two earned runs or fewer in two straight starts, including a very solid start against the Phillies. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Zack Wheeler, who is 12-6 with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 160.2 innings pitched this season. Wheeler has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. 

Why the Phillies will beat the Braves

• The Phillies have won each of their last 10 games as home favorites against NL East opponents following a home loss.
• The Braves have lost eight of their last 10 night games at Citizens Bank Park following a road win.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 Saturday night home games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the last seven games between the Braves and Phillies at Citizens Bank Park have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Braves' last 10 night games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Braves' last eight games as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last six night games at Citizens Bank Park.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in six of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents.
• Bryce Harper has hit a home run in four of his last five Saturday appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
• Alec Bohm has recorded at least one Single in 11 of his last 12 appearances with the Phillies as home favorites against the Braves.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
• Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one RBI in five of the Phillies' last six home games against NL East opponents.
• Trea Turner has scored a run in six of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

• Marcell Ozuna has recorded a single in each of the Braves' last nine night games.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one total base in each of the Braves' last 12 games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Max Fried has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last nine appearances with the Braves as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
• Adam Duvall has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last six road appearances against the Phillies.
• Matt Olson has scored at least one run in each of the Braves' last six night games.
• Matt Olson has recorded at least one Double in five of the Braves' last six night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Max Fried has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Adam Duvall has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances at Citizens Bank Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Marcell Ozuna has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves' last 12 night games.

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 

Atlanta was able to get the win in game two of this series on Friday night and they are trying to get back into the NL East race. The Braves are 38-33 on the road this year, while the Phillies are 45-25 at home. Philadelphia has one of the best home records in the MLB this season and they are starting Zack Wheeler, who has been fantastic over the last few weeks. The Braves are going with Max Fried, who has been a little inconsistent, but has had two very good starts in a row. I like how the Braves are playing right now, but I am not going against Wheeler. Take the Phillies here.