Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction MLB Picks 8/28/24

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies are 78-54 this season and they have won four games in a row. Philadelphia has won the first two games in this series by scores of 3-2 and 5-0. Prior to this series, the Phillies won two out of three against the Royals, lost two out of three against the Angels, and won three out of four against the Nationals. Philadelphia is 5-4 in their last nine games and they are first in the NL East. 

The Philadelphia pitching staff has a 3.66 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .238 opponent batting average. The Phillies offense has scored 646 runs with a .259 batting average and a .327 on base percentage. Alec Bohm is batting .291 with 13 home runs and 89 RBI’s for the Phillies this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Spencer Arrighetti, who is 6-11 with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 116.2 innings pitched this year. Arrighetti has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Philadelphia is Taijuan Walker, who is 3-5 with a 6.26 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP over 64.2 innings pitched this season. Walker has allowed at least three earned runs in five straight starts. 

Why the Astros will beat the Phillies

• The Astros have won four of their last five games as underdogs against National League opponents following a road loss.
• The Phillies have lost three of their last four games as favorites against American League opponents following a home win.
• The Astros have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as underdogs.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four day games following a home win.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last five games between the Astros and Phillies at Citizens Bank Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Four of the Astros' last five day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Astros' last six day games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Phillies' last four games.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Taijuan Walker has recorded a win in eight of his last 10 appearances with his team as a favorite against AL opponents .
• Trea Turner has hit at least one home run in five of his last eight appearances with the Phillies as home favorites against AL West opponents.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies' last nine games at Citizens Bank Park.
• Bryce Harper has scored at least one run in 10 of the Phillies' last 11 home games against AL West opponents.
• Bryce Harper has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Phillies' last seven games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• Bryce Harper has recorded a Double in four of the Phillies' last five games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Taijuan Walker has recorded three or more strikeouts in each of his last nine appearances against AL West opponents.
• Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Phillies' last six games at Citizens Bank Park.
• J.T. Realmuto has recorded at least one Single in eight of his last nine home appearances.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Kyle Tucker has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Ben Gamel has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances with his team as an underdog.
• Kyle Tucker has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances with the Astros as road underdogs against NL opponents.
• Kyle Tucker has scored at least one run in each of his last five appearances with the Astros as road underdogs against NL opponents.
• Alex Bregman has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in day games.
• Kyle Tucker has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances with the Astros as road underdogs against NL opponents.

Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 

Philadelphia comes into this game after winning the first two in this series and they have won four in a row, but I am leaning towards Houston here. The Astros have struggled over the last week and a half and they are just two games above .500 on the road, but Arrighetti has been very strong for them over the last two months. Walker has been a bit of a disaster for Philadelphia and I have very little confidence in him. Take Houston here.