New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction MLB Picks 8/22/24

San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres are 72-56 this season and they have won three of their last five games. San Diego is coming off of a series win against Minnesota, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Padres lost two out of three against the Rockies, swept the Pirates in three games, and won two out of three against the Marlins. San Diego is 6-3 in their last nine games and they are tied for third in the NL West. 

The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.99 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average. The Padres offense has scored 611 runs with a .265 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. Manny Machado is batting .268 with 20 home runs and 73 RBI’s for the Padres this season. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for New York is Luis Severino, who is 8-6 with a 3.91 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 142.2 innings pitched this year. Severino has allowed at least four earned runs in three of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Dylan Cease, who is 12-9 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 148.1 innings pitched this season. Cease has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. 

Why the Padres will beat the Mets

• The Padres have won 18 of their last 19 night games after playing the previous day.
• The Mets have lost each of their last four night games following a win.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last nine night games against the Mets at Petco Park following a home loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last six games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games.

Total Runs Facts

• Eight of the Mets' last nine road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Each of the Padres' last four home games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last four games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Padres' last six Thursday games against National League opponents.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• David Peralta has hit a home run in three of the Padres' last four games as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Jackson Merrill has recorded a Double in six of the Padres' last seven night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded an RBI in each of the Padres' last four night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Dylan Cease has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances at Petco Park.
• Jackson Merrill has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Padres' last seven night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jurickson Profar has recorded at least one Single in nine of his last 10 appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Dylan Cease has recorded eight or more strikeouts in seven of his last eight appearances at Petco Park.
• Jackson Merrill has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres' last nine games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has scored at least one run in eight of his last nine appearances at Petco Park.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• J.D. Martinez has hit a home run in each of the Mets' last two night games.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against NL West opponents.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded an RBI in each of the Mets' last four games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets' last six road games.
• Luis Severino has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his eight previous appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets' last eight games against NL West opponents.
• J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one total base in each of his last eight appearances with his team as an underdog against NL West opponents.
• Jose Iglesias has scored a run in seven of his last eight appearances against the Padres after playing the previous day.

New York Mets vs San Diego Padres Prediction 

San Diego comes into this matchup after another series win, as they continue to put pressure on the Dodgers in the NL West standings. San Diego is 35-30 at home this year, while New York is 31-28 on the road. The Mets have had some struggles over the last few weeks and they are still sitting in third of the NL East standings. New York is going with Severino, who has been below average in recent outings. San Diego is starting Dylan Cease, who continues to be one of the best pitchers in the MLB. The Padres have a pretty big advantage with Cease on the mound, so my New York Mets vs San Diego Padres prediction is for the Padres to win by at least two runs.