Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction MLB Picks 8/5/24

Marlins Earn a Tough Series Split 

The Miami Marlins are 42-70 this season and they have won three of their last five games. Miami is coming off of a series split with Atlanta, where they won two games and lost two games. Prior to that series, the Marlins split two games with Tampa Bay, won two out of three against Milwaukee, and won two out of three against Baltimore. Miami is 7-5 in their last 12 games and they are last in the NL East. 

The Miami pitching staff has a 4.46 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a .253 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 408 runs with a .238 batting average and a .291 on base percentage. Jake Burger is batting .240 with 17 home runs and 47 RBI’s for the Marlins this season. Miami has scored at least four runs in 10 of their last 14 games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Martinez, who is 5-5 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 79.0 innings pitched this year. Martinez has allowed one earned run in his last six appearances, but he shouldn’t be expected to last more than a couple of innings. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Roddery Munoz, who is 2-5 with a 5.45 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP over 66.0 innings pitched this year. Munoz has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last five starts, but has gone five innings or fewer in four of those outings. 

Why the Marlins will beat the Reds 

• The Marlins have won five of their last six games at LoanDepot Park against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• The Reds have lost each of their last four games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in eight of their last nine home games.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six road games against teams that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins' last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Reds' last six road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Reds' last four games at LoanDepot Park.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Marlins' last four home games against National League opponents.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Jake Burger has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against the Reds.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Nick Gordon has scored a run in each of the Marlins' last four games at LoanDepot Park.
• Jake Burger has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Marlins' last four games against NL opponents.
• Nick Gordon has recorded a Single in each of his last three appearances against the Reds.
• Jake Burger has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Marlins' last six night games.
• Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in each of the Marlins' last two home games against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Elly De La Cruz has recorded a Double in four of the Reds' last five road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances after playing the previous day.
• Santiago Espinal has recorded at least one Single in eight of his last nine appearances.
• Elly De La Cruz has recorded at least one total base in each of the Reds' last eight games against NL East opponents.
• Jeimer Candelario has scored at least one run in seven of his eight previous appearances against the Marlins.
• Jeimer Candelario has hit a home run in two of the Reds' last three games against the Marlins.

Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins Prediction 

Miami comes into this series after winning their last two games against the Braves and they have played much better over the last few weeks. The Marlins are just 22-34 at home this year, while the Reds are 25-27 on the road. Cincinnati has been very up and down so far this season, but they are towards the bottom of the NL Central standings. The Reds have not listed their pitcher for this game, but it sounds like it could be Martinez. The Marlins are going with Roddery Munoz, who has been decent in recent outings, but has an ERA over five. I think we are going to see a higher scoring game here, but I do like how Miami was able to finish that series against Atlanta, so my Cincinnati Reds vs Miami Marlins prediction is for the Marlins to win.