Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Prediction MLB Picks 7/29/24

Mets are Looking to Bounce Back 

The New York Mets are 55-50 this year and they have lost two games in a row. Minnesota is coming off of a series split with Atlanta, where they won two games and lost two games. Prior to that series, the Mets won both games against the Yankees, split four games with the Marlins, and won two out of three against the Rockies. New York is 5-2 in their last seven games and they are third in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .234 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 506 runs with a .248 batting average and a .321 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .244 with 21 home runs and 55 RBI’s for the Mets this season. New York has allowed at least four runs in three straight games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Simeon Woods Richardson, who is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 88.0 innings pitched this year. Woods Richardson has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Jose Quintana, who is 5-6 with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP over 107.1 innings pitched this season. Quintana has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts. 

Why the Twins will beat the Mets

• The underdogs have won four of the last five games between the Twins and Mets.
• The Mets have lost three of their last four games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 11 games as favorites against American League opponents following a loss.
• The Twins have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 road games after playing the previous day.
• The Twins have led after 3 innings in each of their last three road games.

Total Runs Facts

• Six of the Mets' last seven games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Twins' last six night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last four games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Twins' last three games as road underdogs.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 appearances against the Twins.
• Jose Quintana has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last 15 appearances with his team as a favorite against the Twins.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Mets' last five games as favorites against AL Central opponents.
• Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets' last four games against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 15 appearances against the Twins.
• Pete Alonso has scored at least one run in seven of the Mets' last eight games as favorites against AL Central opponents.
• Jeff McNeil has recorded a Double in four of the Mets' last five games as home favorites.
• Harrison Bader has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Jose Miranda has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances in night games.
• Jose Miranda has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances in night games.
• Carlos Correa has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight appearances in night games.
• Manuel Margot has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four appearances against the Mets after playing the previous day.
• Jose Miranda has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Carlos Correa has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.

Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Prediction 

Minnesota comes into this series with plenty of momentum after winning two series against the Phillies and Tigers, and they are looking to get closer to Cleveland for first in the AL Central. New York split four games with the Braves over the weekend, but they have played very well over the last two months. New York is 28-28 at home, while Minnesota is 29-25 on the road. Both of these starting pitchers have had success in recent outings, but I give the slight edge to Woods Richardson. My Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets prediction is for the Twins to win.