Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction MLB Picks 7/28/24

Cardinals Search for Better Pitching 

The St. Louis Cardinals are 53-51 this season and they have lost four of their last five games. St. Louis has dropped the first two games in this series and they have been out scored 24-11 in the process. Prior to this series, the Cardinals lost two out of three against the Pirates, won two out of three against the Braves, and split four games with the Cubs. St. Louis is 3-6 in their last nine games and they are second in the NL Central. 

The St. Louis pitching staff has a 4.10 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .252 opponent batting average. The Cardinals offense has scored 429 runs with a .245 batting average and a .309 on base percentage. Nolan Arenado is batting .263 with 11 home runs and 45 RBI’s for the Cardinals this season. St. Louis has allowed 29 runs in their last three games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Washington is DJ Herz, who is 1-4 with a 4.95 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP over 36.1 innings pitched this year. Herz has allowed two earned runs or fewer in two of his last three starts, but did allow four earned runs over 4.1 innings two starts ago against St. Louis. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Miles Mikolas, who is 8-8 with a 5.02 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP over 118.1 innings pitched this season. Mikolas has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, including 6.1 shutout innings against the Nats three starts ago. 

Why the Cardinals will beat the Nationals

• The Nationals have lost five of their last six day games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Cardinals have won eight of their last 10 day games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Cardinals have covered the run line in each of their last four day games following a home loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six day games against teams that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the last seven games between the Nationals and Cardinals at Busch Stadium have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eleven of the Nationals' last 12 games as underdogs against the Cardinals have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Cardinals' last six games against National League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Nationals' last three games against NL Central opponents.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Alec Burleson has hit a home run in each of the Cardinals' last three day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Alec Burleson has recorded at least one RBI in six of the Cardinals' last seven day games.
• Miles Mikolas has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Willson Contreras has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last five appearances with the Cardinals as favorites against the Nationals.
• Masyn Winn has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances with the Cardinals as favorites against NL East opponents.
• Brendan Donovan has recorded at least one Single in each of the Cardinals' last six day games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Miles Mikolas has recorded four or more strikeouts in three of his four previous appearances against the Nationals at Busch Stadium.
• Willson Contreras has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Luis Garcia has recorded two hits in four of his last five appearances after playing the previous day.
• Luis Garcia has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Nationals' last four games at Busch Stadium against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Luis Garcia has recorded two or more total bases in six of his last seven road appearances against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• CJ Abrams has scored at least one run in each of the Nationals' last seven road games against NL Central opponents.
• Lane Thomas has recorded at least one Single in eight of the Nationals' last nine games against NL Central opponents that held a winning record.
• Keibert Ruiz has hit a home run in two of the Nationals' last three road games against the Cardinals.
• Jacob Young ranks 7th in the league in Steals (24) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The St. Louis Cardinals rank 24th in the league for RBI's this season (404).
• The St. Louis Cardinals rank 24th in the league for strikeouts this season (842).
• The Washington Nationals rank 26th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.370).
• The Washington Nationals rank 26th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.255).

Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction 

Washington came into this series after getting swept by the Padres in three games, but they have scored 24 runs in the first two games and they are looking for the sweep here. The Nationals are 26-29 on the road, while the Cardinals are 26-24 at home. St. Louis is currently second in the NL Central, but they haven’t been great over the last two weeks. The Cards are going with Miles Mikolas, who has some ugly numbers on the season, but pitched very well against Washington three starts ago. The Nats are going with DJ Herz, who has been up and down in limited action this year. The Nationals have scored a ton of runs so far in the series, but I like Mikolas to limit their damage here. My Washington Nationals vs St. Louis Cardinals prediction is for the Cardinals to win.