San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction MLB Picks 7/27/24

Orioles Trying to Turn Things Around 

The Baltimore Orioles are 61-42 this year and they have lost four of their last five games. Baltimore lost the first game in this series and they allowed six runs in the loss. Prior to this series, the Orioles lost two out of three against the Marlins, won two out of three against the Rangers, and lost two out of three against the Yankees. Baltimore is 4-9 in their last 13 games and they are first in the AL East. 

The Baltimore pitching staff has a 3.74 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average. The Orioles offense has scored 510 runs with a .253 batting average and a .314 on base percentage. Gunnar Henderson is batting .284 with 28 home runs and 63 RBI’s for the Orioles this season. Baltimore has allowed six runs in four straight games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Michael King, who is 8-6 with a 3.28 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over 118.0 innings pitched this year. King has allowed one earned run in each of his last four starts. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Dean Kremer, who is 4-6 with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP over 69.0 innings pitched this season. Kremer has allowed three earned runs or more in two of his last three starts. 

Why the Orioles will beat the Padres

• The Orioles have won seven of their last eight day games following a home loss.
• The Orioles have covered the run line in each of their last three day games against NL West opponents following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Orioles' last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Padres' last six games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Padres' last six road games against American League opponents.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Orioles' last six home games against NL West opponents.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

• Anthony Santander has hit a home run in each of the Orioles' last three day games.
• Jordan Westburg has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances with the Orioles as favorites against NL West opponents.
• Jordan Westburg has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Orioles' last four home games against NL West opponents.
• Anthony Santander has scored a run in nine of the Orioles' last 10 games against NL West opponents at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
• Dean Kremer has recorded four or more strikeouts in 15 of his last 17 appearances at Oriole Park at Camden Yards against opponents that held a winning record.
• Ryan O'Hearn has recorded a Single in each of the Orioles' last seven games against NL West opponents.
• Anthony Santander has recorded at least one total base in each of the Orioles' last nine games as favorites.
• Gunnar Henderson has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jurickson Profar has hit at least one home run in three of the Padres' last four road games.
• Jackson Merrill has recorded a Double in each of the Padres' last three games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
• Xander Bogaerts has scored at least one run in each of the Padres' last four road games.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one Single in each of the Padres' last six games.
• Jurickson Profar has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Padres' last five road games.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with his team as a road underdog against the Orioles.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded an RBI in each of his last five appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.

San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction 

San Diego comes into this matchup on a nice winning streak and they are staying within striking distance of the Dodgers. The Padres are 30-22 on the road this year, while the Orioles are 30-23 at home. We have seen Baltimore struggle over the last few weeks, but they have benefitted from the Yankees also struggling. San Diego is going with Michael King, who has been locked in over his last four outings, but will face a very dangerous Baltimore lineup. The Padres probably have the small advantage on the mound, but I am taking Baltimore at home at this reasonable price. My San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles prediction is for Baltimore to win.