New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction MLB Picks 7/1/24

Washington Nationals (39-44) vs New York Mets (40-41)

Game Info: Monday, July 1, 2024 at 6:45 pm (Nationals Park)

MacKenzie Gore (6-7) (3.92) vs David Peterson (3-0) (3.67)

Betting Odds: Washington Nationals -105 / New York Mets -115 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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In this article we will formulate a New York Mets vs Washington Nationals prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 1st at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. To formulate this prediction for game one in the series, we will examine:

  • The Mets recent form and recent player performance 
  • The Nationals recent form and recent play performance
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving New York
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Washington
  • Recent betting trends in games played between New York and Washington
  • A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between New York and Washington

Mets are Trying to Stay Hot 

The New York Mets are 40-41 this year and they have won four of their last six games. New York is coming off of a series loss against Houston, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Mets won both games against the Yankees, won two out of three against the Cubs, and won two out of three against the Rangers. New York is 12-4 in their last 16 games and they are third in the NL East. 

The New York pitching staff has a 4.16 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP, and a .236 opponent batting average. The Mets offense has scored 393 runs with a .250 batting average and a .323 on base percentage. Pete Alonso is batting .245 with 17 home runs and 46 RBI’s for the Mets this season. New York has scored at least five runs in six straight games. 

Nationals are Trending in the Wrong Direction 

The Washington Nationals are 39-44 this season and they have lost five of their last six games. Washington is coming off of a series loss against Tampa Bay, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Nationals lost all three against the Padres, won two out of three against the Rockies, and lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks. Washington is 3-7 in their last ten games and they are fourth in the NL East. 

The Washington pitching staff has a 3.96 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP, and a .253 opponent batting average. The Nationals offense has scored 341 runs with a .235 batting average and a .304 on base percentage. CJ Abrams is batting .283 with 13 home runs and 42 RBI’s for the Nationals this season. Washington has allowed at least five runs in seven of their last ten games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for New York is David Peterson, who is 3-0 with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP over 27.0 innings pitched this season. Peterson has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is MacKenzie Gore, who is 6-7 with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 85.0 innings pitched this year. Gore has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. 

Why the Mets will beat the Nationals

  • The Mets have won each of their last seven road games against the Nationals following a loss.
  • The Nationals have lost five of their last six games.
  • The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against the Nationals at Nationals Park following a home loss.
  • The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 home games against the Mets following a road loss.
  • The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four night games.

Total Runs Facts

  • Each of the Nationals' last five home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • Each of the Mets' last four games as favorites against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Mets' last three night games at Nationals Park.
  • The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Nationals' last seven Monday games at Nationals Park.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

  • Lane Thomas has hit a home run in each of the Nationals' last three home games against NL East opponents.
  • Lane Thomas has recorded a Double in three of the Nationals' last four games against NL opponents.
  • MacKenzie Gore has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL East opponents.
  • MacKenzie Gore has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five home appearances.
  • Lane Thomas has scored at least one run in seven of the Nationals' last eight home games.
  • Jesse Winker has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine appearances at Nationals Park against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Luis Garcia has recorded at least one Single in eight of his last nine appearances with the Nationals as home underdogs against NL opponents.
  • Luis Garcia has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances with the Nationals as home underdogs against NL opponents.
  • Joey Gallo has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

  • Tyrone Taylor has hit a home run in each of the Mets' last two night games.
  • Harrison Bader has recorded two or more RBIs in each of the Mets' last five road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
  • Brandon Nimmo has scored at least one run in eight of the Mets' last nine night games.
  • Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 10 Monday appearances with his team as a favorite.
  • J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one hit in each of his 12 previous road appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
  • Starling Marte has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine appearances at Nationals Park.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Washington Nationals rank 27th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.365).
  • The Washington Nationals rank 5th in the league for home runs allowed this season (78).
  • The New York Mets rank 4th in the league for home runs this season (102).
  • The New York Mets rank 4th in the league for home runs allowed this season (77).

New York Mets vs Washington Nationals Prediction 

The Mets are coming off of a series loss against Houston, but they have still played very well over the last few weeks. New York is 19-16 on the road, while Washington is just 17-19 at home. The Mets offense has been very strong recently and they are now 10th in the MLB in runs scored this year. Washington is starting MacKenzie Gore, who has been mostly solid this year, but has had two really poor outings in his last five starts. New York is going with Peterson, who has been very good recently. I do think Washington has the slight advantage on the mound, but New York’s offense is red hot right now. My New York Mets vs Washington Nationals prediction is for the Mets to win. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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