Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction MLB Picks 7/1/24

Toronto Blue Jays (38-45) vs Houston Astros (42-41)

Game Info: Monday, July 1, 2024 at 3:07 pm (Rogers Centre)

Yariel Rodriguez (0-2) (5.94) vs Hunter Brown (5-5) (4.37)

Betting Odds: Toronto Blue Jays +120 / Houston Astros -141 --- Over/Under: 8.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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In this article we will formulate a Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction for this MLB game on Monday, July 1st at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario. To formulate this prediction for game one in the series, we will examine:

  • The Astros recent form and recent player performance 
  • The Blue Jays recent form and recent play performance
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Houston
  • Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Toronto
  • Recent betting trends in games played between Houston and Toronto
  • A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Houston and Toronto 

Astros Coming Off Another Series Win 

The Houston Astros are 42-41 this season and they have won nine of their last ten games. Houston is coming off of a series win against the Mets, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Astros won both games against the Rockies, swept the Orioles, and won two out of three against the White Sox. Houston has played much better over the past few weeks and they are second in the AL West standings. 

The Houston pitching staff has a 4.08 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a .237 opponent batting average. The Astros offense has scored 388 runs with a .265 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. Yordan Alvarez is batting .294 with 16 home runs and 41 RBI’s for the Astros this season. Houston has scored at least five runs in eight of their last nine games. 

Blue Jays are Allowing Way Too Many Runs 

The Toronto Blue Jays are 38-45 this year and they have won three of their last five games. Toronto is coming off of a series split with the Yankees, where they won two games and lost two games. Prior to that series, the Blue Jays split two games with the Red Sox, lost all three against the Guardians, and lost all three against the Red Sox. Toronto is just 3-9 in their last 12 games and they are last in the AL East. 

The Toronto pitching staff has a 4.31 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .253 opponent batting average. The Blue Jays offense has scored 335 runs with a .236 batting average and a .313 on base percentage. Vladimir Guerrero is batting .297 with 13 home runs and 50 RBI’s for the Blue Jays this season. Toronto has allowed at least six runs in seven of their last ten games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Houston is Hunter Brown, who is 5-5 with a 4.37 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 80.1 innings pitched this year. Brown has allowed a total of one earned run in his last four starts (25.0 IP). The projected starting pitcher for Toronto is Yariel Rodriguez, who is 0-2 with a 5.94 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP over 16.2 innings pitched this season. Rodriguez has allowed nine earned runs in his last three starts (9.0 IP). 

Why the Astros will beat the Blue Jays

  • The Astros have won each of their last seven day games after playing the previous day.
  • The Blue Jays have lost each of their last five home games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
  • The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last six games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
  • The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line each of their last five home games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

  • Each of the Blue Jays' last seven games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
  • Ten of the Astros' last 11 games following an extra innings win have gone UNDER the total runs line.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Blue Jays' last four games.
  • The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Astros' last three road games against AL East opponents.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

  • Justin Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last six appearances with his team as a home underdog against AL West opponents.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit a home run in three of the Blue Jays' last four games against AL opponents.
  • Bo Bichette has scored at least one run in each of his last four appearances.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded two or more RBIs in six of the Blue Jays' last seven games against AL opponents.
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has recorded at least one Double in four of the Blue Jays' last five games as underdogs.
  • Justin Turner has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 15 appearances with his team as a home underdog against AL opponents.
  • Justin Turner has recorded at least one total base in 14 of his last 15 appearances with his team as a home underdog against AL opponents.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

  • Jose Altuve has hit a home run in each of the Astros' last three games as favorites against AL East opponents.
  • Jose Altuve has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Astros' last five day games against AL teams that held a losing record.
  • Yordan Alvarez has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Astros' last six Monday day games as favorites.
  • Jose Altuve has scored at least one run in each of the Astros' last five games as favorites against AL East opponents.
  • Alex Bregman has recorded at least one Single in nine of the Astros' last 10 road games against opponents that held a losing record.
  • Alex Bregman has recorded at least one hit in each of the Astros' last nine road games against AL opponents.

Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 

Houston continues to be one of the hottest teams in the MLB right now and they are making a run at Seattle in the AL West standings. The Astros have won nine of their last ten games, but they are just 18-22 on the road. Toronto is 20-21 at home this season, but they did just get a series split with the Yankees. The Blue Jays have really struggled to play well on a consistent basis and they are starting Rodriguez, who has not pitched well recently. Hunter Brown has really turned his season around with a few great outings and I like that to continue here. My Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays prediction is for the Astros to win. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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