Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction MLB Picks 6/21/24

Reds are Back to Struggling 

The Cincinnati Reds are 35-39 this season and they have lost four of their last five games. Cincinnati is coming off of a series loss against Pittsburgh, where they lost two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Reds lost two out of three against the Brewers, split two games with the Guardians, and won three out of four against the Cubs. Cincinnati is 3-6 in their last nine games and they are at the bottom of the NL Central standings. 

The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 3.80 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .234 opponent batting average. The Reds offense has scored 309 runs with a .225 batting average and a .305 on base percentage. Jeimer Candelario is batting .251 with 12 home runs and 35 RBI’s for the Reds this season. Cincinnati has scored two runs or fewer in four of their last five games. 

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Kutter Crawford, who is 3-6 with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 86.1 innings pitched this year. Crawford has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Andrew Abbott, who is 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP over 79.0 innings pitched this season. Abbott has allowed three earned runs or more in three of his last four outings, but did allow one earned run against the Cubs two starts ago. 

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Reds have lost seven of their last eight games as home favorites following a loss.
• The Red Sox have won five of their last six games as underdogs.
• The Reds have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against AL East opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the Red Sox's last five games.
• The Red Sox have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games as underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Reds' last 11 home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Six of the Red Sox's last seven games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last seven night games between the Red Sox and Reds.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Red Sox's last three games against NL Central opponents.

Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts

• Jeimer Candelario has hit at least one home run in each of the Reds' last two night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jeimer Candelario has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Reds' last three night games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jeimer Candelario has recorded at least one hit in each of the Reds' last 11 night games.
• TJ Friedl has recorded a Single in each of his last five appearances at Great American Ball Park against opponents that held a winning record.
• TJ Friedl has recorded at least one total base in 17 of his last 18 appearances against AL opponents.
• TJ Friedl has scored at least one run in five of his last six appearances with the Reds as favorites.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Connor Wong has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight appearances in night games.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
• Rafael Devers has scored at least one run in each of the Red Sox's last eight road games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Rafael Devers has recorded two or more total bases in each of the Red Sox's last 10 games against the Reds.
• Rafael Devers has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox's last four games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.
• Rafael Devers has recorded at least one RBI in 12 of the Red Sox's last 13 games against NL Central opponents that held a losing record.

Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction 

Boston comes into this series red hot and they are now five games above .500. The Red Sox have played very well over the last two weeks and they are 22-15 on the road. Cincinnati is 18-19 at home this year and they have dropped back into a slump. The Reds are starting Abbott, who has been decent this season, but hasn’t been great. The Red Sox are going with Crawford, who has not pitched very well in his last few starts. Boston is one of the hottest teams in the MLB right now, so I am going to hop on the bandwagon here. My Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds prediction is for Boston to win.