Pick details
| MATCHUP | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 3-5 | 4-4 |
| Spread | -2.5 -105 | +2.5 -115 |
| Moneyline | -130 | +110 |
| Total | Over 53.5 (-108) | Under 53.5 (-112) |
| Where | Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro, TN | |
| When | Saturday, November 7, 2026 | |
| Time | 03:30 PM EST | |
| TV | ESPN+ | |
Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee Prediction
Both of these teams come into this matchup with a 2-2 record in conference play, so this is a big game for each side. Western Kentucky has split their last four games and they have allowed 34+ in two of those four. Middle Tennessee has lost three of their last five games, but they have scored 26 points or more in three straight. Both teams have been inconsistent this year, but I do like Gagliano at the QB spot for Middle Tennessee. On the other side, Brock Glenn is very dangerous on the ground, so I think we could see some scoring. Take the over here.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Betting Preview
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are 3-5 (2-2) this season after they lost to Delaware by a score of 35-21 in their last game. Western Kentucky trailed 28-21 at halftime and they were shutout in the second half in the loss. The Hilltoppers were out gained by a total of 495-477, went 4-14 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Brock Glenn threw for 224 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, while also rushing 17 times for 129 yards. Moussa Barry caught four passes for 80 yards in the loss.
Prior to that game, Western Kentucky defeated Sam Houston by a score of 16-3 and Missouri State by a score of 34-13. The Hilltoppers have scored 21.3 points per game with 221.0 passing yards and 148.0 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 31.1 points against per game this season. Brock Glenn has thrown for 887 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions, while also rushing for 451 yards and five scores. Jonathan Stafford Jr has led the WR room with 46 catches for 433 yards and one touchdown this season.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview
The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are 4-4 (2-2) this year after they lost to Kennesaw State by a score of 44-28 in their last game. Middle Tennessee trailed 19-17 at halftime, but they allowed 25 points in the second half for the disappointing loss. The Blue Raiders out gained Kennesaw State by a total of 380-318, went 11-20 on third downs, and tied the turnover battle at two in the game. Roman Gagliano threw for 183 yards and two interceptions, while Cam’ron Lacy caught four passes for 73 yards. Antonio Martin rushed 18 times for 106 yards and one touchdown in the loss.
Prior to that game, Middle Tennessee defeated FIU by a score of 26-23 and Delaware by a score of 33-30. The Blue Raiders have scored 23.9 points per game with 198.4 passing yards and 146.3 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 29.6 points against per game this season. Roman Gagliano has thrown for 1,587 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions, while Cam’ron Lacy has 45 receptions for 510 yards and four scores. Antonio Martin is the leading rusher with 586 yards and two touchdowns this year.
Why the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders will win
- Middle Tennessee has won four of its last five games at Johnny Floyd Stadium.
- Western Kentucky has lost each of its last three road games in November.
- Middle Tennessee has covered the spread in four of its last five games at Johnny Floyd Stadium.
- Western Kentucky has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five November games as a road favorite.
Why the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will win
- Western Kentucky has won each of its last 12 games as a favorite against teams from Tennessee.
- Middle Tennessee has lost eight of its last 10 games against teams from Kentucky.
- Western Kentucky has covered the spread in each of its last five games as a favorite against Middle Tennessee.
- Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five home games in November.
- Middle Tennessee has lost the first half in eight of its last nine games as a home underdog.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Middle Tennessee’s last four games as an underdog have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of Western Kentucky’s last five November road games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 10, Cam’ron Lacy leads the Conference USA for targets (69) this season.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 10, Jaylen Wester leads the Conference USA for forced fumbles (3) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Middle Tennessee ranks 126th among FBS teams for Q4 opponent points per game this season (9.0).
- Middle Tennessee ranks 121st among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (-3.0).
- Western Kentucky ranks 137th among FBS teams for Q3 opponent points per game this season (9.1).
- Western Kentucky ranks 136th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (-5.8).
Positive Trends
As you can see above, both of the trends about the total are pointing to the over in this one. In the Matchup Facts category, you see both teams struggling to score in a particular quarter, but that doesn’t scare me away, as I think the quarterback matchup and the average defenses will combine for big plays. I would also take a look at Western Kentucky’s team total, but I am perfectly fine going with the overall over here.
David Racey's Pick: Over 53.5
