Pick details
| MATCHUP | Vanderbilt Commodores | Mississippi State Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 3-5 | 4-4 |
| Spread | +3 -112 | -3 -108 |
| Moneyline | +124 | -148 |
| Total | Over 48.5 (-112) | Under 48.5 (-108) |
| Where | Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS | |
| When | Saturday, November 7, 2026 | |
| Time | 04:15 PM EST | |
| TV | SEC Network | |
Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State Prediction
In this Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State prediction, Mississippi State is coming as -3.5 home favorites. Both teams have been in terrible form, as they have lost four and five straight games respectively and 0-4 and 0-3 against the spread. I am not interested in backing either side in their current form, as Mississippi State’s offense has been ice-cold, having scored 18 total points in its last three games combined and Vanderbilt has also scored 17 points or less in four of its last five games, that is almost six points less than its season average. As a result, both teams are a perfect 4-0 to the under in their last four games combined and also all of their five head-to-head meetings have also gone under the total. Only one way to go here, and that is to take the under 48 points.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Preview
Mississippi State has a 4-4 record (2-4 in the SEC). They are coming off a 3-31 road loss against Texas and will face Auburn and Tennessee Tech next.
Offensively, Mississippi State averages 26.6 points per game, ranking 82nd in the nation, while defensively, they allow 28.1 points per game, which is 104th. Mississippi State averages 408.1 total yards per game (246.5 passing and 161.6 rushing), while allowing 378.0 total yards per game (116.5 rushing and 261.5 passing). They average 69.1 plays per game and 5.9 yards per play on offense, while allowing 67.3 plays per game and 5.6 yards per play on defense. Mississippi State averages 22.1 first downs per game on offense and 20.0 first downs per game on defense. They have turned the ball over 1.4 times per game and are forcing 0.9 turnovers per game.
Kamario Taylor leads Mississippi State with 1,460 passing yards with 65.4% completed passes and 17 touchdowns. Kolin Wilson leads the team in rushing yards with 230, while Anthony Evans III has a team-high 666 receiving yards and 56 receptions. Defensively, Tyler Lockhart has a team-high 48 total tackles (23 solo and 25 assisted), while Amaree Williams and Tyler Lockhart lead the team with 2.0 sacks each.
Vanderbilt Commodores Preview
Vanderbilt has a 3-5 record (0-5 in the SEC). They are coming off a 17-34 road loss against Kentucky and will face Alabama and at Florida next.
Offensively, Vanderbilt averages 22.8 points per game, ranking 105th in the nation, while defensively, they allow 30.2 points per game, which is 113th. Vanderbilt averages 342.8 total yards per game (236.6 passing and 106.1 rushing), while allowing 366.9 total yards per game (149.6 rushing and 217.3 passing). They average 62.9 plays per game and 5.5 yards per play on offense, while allowing 64.9 plays per game and 5.7 yards per play on defense. Vanderbilt averages 18.3 first downs per game on offense and 20.6 first downs per game on defense. They have turned the ball over 1.8 times per game and are forcing 0.9 turnovers per game.
Jared Curtis leads Vanderbilt with 1,489 passing yards with 65.0% completed passes and 8 touchdowns. Sedrick Alexander leads the team in rushing yards with 274, while Junior Sherrill has a team-high 706 receiving yards and 49 receptions. Defensively, CJ Heard has a team-high 60 total tackles (42 solo and 18 assisted), while Nicholas Rinaldi leads the team with 3.5 sacks.
Vanderbilt Commodores @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Trends: Week 10
Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs will win
- The favorite has won each of Mississippi State’s last 10 games at Davis Wade Stadium.
- Vanderbilt has lost each of its last nine games as an underdog against teams from Mississippi.
- Mississippi State has covered the spread in each of its last six games against teams from Tennessee.
- Vanderbilt has failed to cover the spread in each of its last three games.
- Vanderbilt has lost the first half in each of its last four games as an underdog.
Why the Vanderbilt Commodores will win
- Mississippi State has lost 15 of its last 16 games against conference opponents at Davis Wade Stadium.
- Vanderbilt has covered the spread in eight of its last nine November games as a road underdog.
- Mississippi State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against conference opponents.
Total Points Facts
- Ten of Mississippi State’s last 11 November games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of Vanderbilt’s last five games in November have gone OVER the total points line.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 10, Kamario Taylor ranks 8th amongst qualified players for passer rating (172.8) this season.
Vanderbilt Commodores Player Prop Facts
- Heading into Week 10, Sedrick Alexander leads Vanderbilt for touchdowns (6) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Mississippi State ranks 6th among FBS teams for sacks this season (28.0).
- Mississippi State ranks 128th among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (261.5).
- Vanderbilt ranks T129th among FBS teams for Q2 points per game this season (4.8).
- Vanderbilt ranks 129th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game this season (106.1).
Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Under 48
