California vs SMU Prediction 10/24/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The California Golden Bears and the SMU Mustangs meet Saturday in college football action from Gerald J Ford Stadium in University Park. Here’s a California vs SMU prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Cal vs SMU pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

California Golden Bears Betting Preview

This year the Bears started out 2-1 over their first three outings. After a loss to UCLA, Cal beat Syracuse and Wagner. The next three were a 1-2 run though, as the Golden Bears lost to Clemson and UNLV ahead of a five-point win versus Virginia Tech. Through the first six games that would give California a shaky 3-3 record in the books for their troubles.

In the Wake Forest game last weekend the Bears were overmatched. After giving up three touchdowns in the second quarter alone, Cal faced a 34-0 deficit at the break. Things didn’t get much better from there and the Bears limped to a 41-7 blowout loss. QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele was 15-of-18 for 110 yards and a touchdown in the losing effort.

SMU Mustangs Betting Preview

Over on the SMU side, they did a little better in the early-going this season. The Mustangs beat Florida State and UC Davis in their first two outings before falling to Louisville in game three. After recovering with a 34-24 win over Missouri State on September 26, the Mustangs kept it going with a win over Boston College. That would give the team a 4-1 run in the first five.

Matched up against Virginia in game six, the Mustangs fought through a wild second quarter for a 13-10 advantage by halftime. SMU added a touchdown in the fourth quarter on the way to a 23-13 victory. QB Kevin Jennings was 23-of-36 for 246 yards and two touchdowns. Leading rusher Kendrick Raphael had 22 totes for 124 yards in the victory.

California Golden Bears @ SMU Mustangs Betting Trends: Week 8

SMU Mustangs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 8, Kevin Jennings ranks 10th amongst qualified players for passer rating (175.4) this season.

California Golden Bears Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 8, Kingston Lopa/Kaleb Beasley lead the league for interceptions (5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• SMU ranks 3rd among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (+11.0).
• SMU ranks 5th among FBS teams for passing yards per game this season (325.2).
• California ranks T137th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (87.5).
• California ranks 134th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (13.4).

California vs SMU Prediction

I’ll stick with SMU I suppose. The Mustangs weren’t exactly overwhelming in the win versus Virginia but they did well enough on 404 total yards, 23 first downs 4-of-13 on third downs and no turnovers. SMU gave up just 13 first downs and 4-of-13 on third downs defensively, which really helped drive the game in their favor. The Mustangs have won three straight games and they’ve scored 23 or more points in all six outings this year.

As for Cal, they went just 6-of-16 on third downs and gained a tepid 266 yards in their loss to Wake Forest. The Bears gave up 24 first downs and 509 yards defensively, including 202 rush yards. California has lost three of the last four and this will be another tricky matchup for them.

Andrew Jett's Pick: SMU Mustangs -17.5