Toledo vs Michigan State Prediction 11/5/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

Toledo vs Michigan State Prediction

In this Toledo vs Michigan State Prediction, Michigan State is coming as -26.5 home favorites. Both teams are coming off opposite outcomes in their opening games of the season, as Michigan State won easily at home by 40 points, while Toledo is coming off a narrow one-point loss by Arkansas State. Michigan State is projected as #7 for the upcoming College Basketball Season, while Toledo is projected as #165, so the value lies with the superior team playing at home, where they were 15-2 last season. The Spartans have also won all three head-to-head meetings against Toledo historically and dominated their most previous meeting by 92-69 at home. Take the better team at home and lay the big number. Take Michigan State by -26.5 points.

Michigan State Spartans Preview

The Michigan State Spartans have a 1-0 overall record and a 1-0 home record. They are coming off a 96-59 home win against Quinnipiac and will face Duke and Northern Iowa next.

Offensively, they are averaging 96.0 points per game (ranking 63rd in the nation), while allowing 59.0 points per game defensively (88th). They have a 132.6 offensive rating (ranking 43rd) and a 81.5 defensive rating (93rd). The Spartans are shooting 58.1% from the field (ranking 27th in the nation) and 39.1% from beyond the arc (89th), while grabbing 46.0 rebounds per game (69th in the nation) and averaging 22.0 assists per game (47th). They have 8.0 blocks per game (17th in the nation) and 10.0 steals per game (91st).

Jeremy Fears leads Michigan State in scoring, averaging 13.0 ppg on 62.5% shooting from the field, adding one rebound and 11.0 assists. Coen Carr follows with 12.0 ppg on 50.0% shooting from the field and 8.0 rebounds per game, while Anton Bonke adds 11.0 ppg on 71.4% shooting from the field and 13.0 rebounds per game.

Toledo Rockets Preview

The Toledo Rockets have a 0-1 overall record and a 0-1 away record. They are coming off a 70-71 loss at Arkansas State and will face Marshall and Wright State next.

Offensively, they are averaging 70.0 points per game (ranking 240th in the nation), while allowing 71.0 points per game defensively (175th). They have a 92.9 offensive rating (ranking 266th) and a 94.2 defensive rating (156th). The Rockets are shooting 39.7% from the field (ranking 254th in the nation) and 22.2% from beyond the arc (301st), while grabbing 50.0 rebounds per game (37th in the nation) and averaging 21.0 assists per game (57th). They have 3.0 blocks per game (179th in the nation) and 7.0 steals per game (181st).

Mynor Strong leads Toledo in scoring, averaging 18.0 ppg on 37.5% shooting from the field, adding 3.0 rebounds. Angel Montas follows with 16.0 ppg on 43.8% shooting from the field and 10.0 rebounds per game, while Jaylan Ouwinga adds 16.0 ppg on 47.1% shooting from the field and 14.0 rebounds per game.

Toledo Rockets @ Michigan State Spartans Betting Trends: November 5, 2026

Why the Michigan State Spartans will win

• Michigan State has won each of its last 14 games at Jack Breslin Student Events Center against non-AP-ranked opponents.
• Toledo has lost four of its last five road night games against non-Conference opponents.
• Toledo has lost the first half in eight of its last nine games against AP-ranked opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Sixteen of Michigan State’s last 20 games against non-Conference opponents have produced a total of 149 or fewer points.
• Four of Toledo’s last five road games against AP-ranked opponents have produced a total of 149 or fewer points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Michigan State ranks T25th among Division 1 teams for field goal percentage this season (58.1%).
• Michigan State ranks 37th among Division 1 teams for effective field goal percentage this season (65.3%).
• Toledo ranks T39th among Division 1 teams for rebounds per game this season (50.0).

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Michigan State -26.5