Tarleton vs LSU Prediction 11/5/2025 Today’s College Basketball Picks

The Tarleton State Texans and the LSU Tigers meet Wednesday in college basketball action from Pete Maravich Assembly Center. Here’s a Tarleton State vs LSU prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Tarleton State vs LSU pick. We will examine:

The Tarleton State Texans recent form and player performance

The LSU Tigers recent form and player performance

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Tarleton State Texans

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the LSU Tigers

Recent betting trends in games played between Tarleton State and LSU

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Tarleton State vs LSU game

Tarleton State Texans Betting Preview

Last season the Texans took a sizable step back in the record column, eventually churning out a disappointing campaign. Tarleton State went just 12-20 overall with a spotty 7-9 run in the WAC games. That result would put the Texans ahead of only Texas-Arlington, Southern Utah and Utah Tech in the conference standings. Tarleton State was able to win just two of their final eight games, taking out only Seattle and Abilene Christian in that February/March stretch. In the first round of the Western Athletic Conference Tournament, the Texans fell to California Baptist 55-51 to end their campaign on March 13.

Tarleton State already has one game in the books this year, as they took on SMU as part of Monday’s national opener slate. The Texans faced a 10-point deficit 48-38 in the first half, then matched that total in the second for a 20-point loss 96-76 in the end. Tops in scoring was Dior Johnson with 23 points and four rebounds, while Freddy Hicks added 15 points, five assists and four boards. Both Chris Mpaka (six rebounds) and DJ Dormu (three rebounds) chipped in with 10 points apiece.

LSU Tigers Betting Preview

Over on the LSU side, they had a pretty disappointing campaign last year, taking a step back from their 17-16 run in 2024-25. The Tigers ended up finishing 14-18 overall with a rough 3-15 run in a very difficult Southeastern Conference. LSU finished ahead of only South Carolina at 2-16 in the standings, three games behind Texas and Oklahoma at 6-12. The Tigers skidded into the postseason on a five-game losing streak, then fell 91-62 versus Mississippi State in the first round of the SEC Tournament to finish off the season.

This year LSU gets Jalen Reed back from injury—his absence played a big part in the team’s rough 2024-25 campaign—in head coach Matt McMahon’s fourth season. Reed will join sophomore Robert Miller as the team’s only two holdovers from last year. The Tigers recruited a group of sizable players this year, as they’re determined to be more effective up front. They’ll certainly need the big guys to produce in a very tough, physical SEC this season.

Tarleton State Texans @ LSU Tigers Betting Trends: November 5, 2025

Why the LSU Tigers will win

LSU has won 49 of its last 52 night games against non-Conference opponents at Pete Maravich Assembly Center.
Tarleton State has lost each of its last seven road night games against non-Conference opponents.
Tarleton State has lost the first half in six of its last seven road night games against non-Conference opponents.

Why the Tarleton State Texans will win

LSU has lost nine of its last 10 night games.

Tarleton State vs LSU Prediction

I’ll probably just stick with the Tigers. LSU has a very difficult road ahead—especially once the conference games begin. The good news is that the Tigers look fairly deep and a lot more physical this season. There’s certainly enough talent to surpass last season’s disappointing record, especially if the injury bug stays away.

As for Tarleton State, they had a tough time keeping pace with SMU in their opener this week despite some decent individual performances on the stat sheet. The Texans allowed a faster, more efficient Mustangs team to shoot a scorching 56 percent from the field with a 29-26 rebounding deficit. Tarleton State shot a tepid 39.2 percent themselves, but it wasn’t an altogether ugly showing in a road opener. Things won’t get any easier here, though. I don’t think the Texans will keep any kind of relative pace in game two.