Florida vs Auburn Prediction 4/5/25 College Basketball Picks

The Florida Gators and the Auburn Tigers meet Saturday in NCAA Tournament Final Four college basketball action from the Alamodome. Here’s a Florida vs Auburn prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Florida vs Auburn pick. We will examine: 

The Florida Gators recent form and player performance

The Auburn Tigers recent form and player performance 

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Florida Gators

Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Auburn Tigers

Recent betting trends in games played between Florida and Auburn

A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Florida vs Auburn game

Florida Gators Betting Preview

Florida looked great throughout the regular season, notching just four losses along the way. The Gators plowed through their first 13 games unscathed, then fell to Kentucky and Missouri in the next four. After wins over Texas, South Carolina and Georgia, the Gators lost to Tennessee ahead of a six-game win streak. Florida would lose to Georgia on February 25, but then came a win streak over Texas A&M, Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama again, Tennessee and Norfolk State during a conference tournament championship run and a First Round victory in the national tourney. The last three outings have been wins over UConn, Maryland and Texas Tech, giving the Gators a nice 34-4 record. 

In their Elite Eight matchup with Texas Tech, Florida held a 40-37 edge at the break. The Gators kept it up in the second half on a 44-42 stretch, taking the win in the end 84-79. Walter Clayton led the team on 30 points with four assists and two blocks, while Thomas Haugh had a double-double off the bench with 20 points and 11 boards. 

Auburn Tigers Betting Preview

Over on the Auburn side, they went into the national tournament on a shaky run, but they’ve pulled themselves together since then. The Tigers lost to only Duke and Florida in their first 23 outings, then took out Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Ole Miss and Kentucky. The regular season finished off with losses to Texas A&M and Alabama, then came an SEC Tournament win over Ole Miss. After falling to Tennessee in the semifinal game, Auburn has since beaten Alabama State, Creighton, Michigan and Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament. In total the Tigers have a 32-5 record so far this season. 

Matched up against Michigan State in Elite Eight action on Sunday, the Tigers came out of the locker room facing a 33-24 advantage. Auburn was outscored 40-37 the rest of the way but held on for the win 70-64. Johni Broome was the team’s leading scorer, notching a double-double on 25 points and 14 rebounds with a pair of assists in 29 minutes of work. 

Why the Auburn Tigers will win

• Auburn has won each of its last seven games when playing with a rest disadvantage.

Why the Florida Gators will win

• Florida has won each of its last 10 games.
• Auburn has lost three of its last four games against the Southeastern Conference.
• Auburn has lost the first half in three of its last four games against Top 5 AP-ranked opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Auburn’s last 13 games against the Southeastern Conference at neutral venues have produced a total of 153 or fewer points.
• Eight of Florida’s last nine night games at a neutral venue have produced a total of 164+ points.

Matchup/League Facts

• Auburn ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for defensive rating this season (101.9).
• Auburn ranks 2nd among Division 1 teams for points per possession this season (1.24).
• Florida ranks 5th among Division 1 teams for net rating this season (+23.3).
• Florida ranks 7th among Division 1 teams for field goal attempts per game this season (64.2).

Florida vs Auburn Prediction 

I’m going to take a stab on Florida here. You could easily call this one either way, though; it’ll be a great matchup. The Gators shot decently (43.9 percent) and had a 42-35 rebounding edge in their Elite Eight matchup with Texas Tech. Florida’s biggest asset in that victory, however, was the 25-of-27 (92.6 percent) from the line. It helped offset a rather sloppy 12 turnovers for 22 Red Raiders points. The Gators have been on a scoring tear recently, notching 77 or more points in 17 straight games (a 16-1 run). 

As for Auburn, they had a rough outing from the line (11-of-20 for 55 percent) and shot a tepid 42.6 percent from the field in their win over Michigan State. That said, the Tigers held the Spartans to just 34.4 percent from the field on the other side, which was just enough to hang on for the victory. The Tigers had been below 66 points in consecutive games heading into the national tournament, so if Florida can hold it together on defense the Gators should be in a great position down the stretch. Regardless, don’t miss this one. It’ll be a fun watch. 

Andrew Jett's Pick: Florida Gators -2.5