Duke vs North Carolina Prediction 3/8/25 College Basketball Picks

The Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels meet on Saturday in college basketball action at Dean E. Smith Center. Here’s a Duke vs North Carolina prediction. This article will include a Duke vs North Carolina Pick.

Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview

The Duke Blue Devils (27-3, 20-10 ATS) bounced back from a loss to Clemson which snapped their 16-game winning streak. The Blue Devils responded with seven consecutive victories and scored 93+ points in five of them in the process. Duke’s previous two games came at home where the Devils had no trouble against Florida State and Wake Forest. Duke is at the top of the ACC Standings with a win ahead of Clemson and Louisville, so a win here is a must to secure the top seed for the conference tourney.

Duke is averaging 83.5 PPG (15th) and is allowing 61.1 PPG (6th). The Blue Devils are getting 38.9 RPG (38th) and dish out 17.3 APG (15th). Cooper Flagg is the team’s top performer and leads in key categories with 19.6 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.6 SPG, and 1.2 BPG. Kon Knueppel adds 13.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, and 2.5 APG, while Tyrese Proctor contributes 11.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG, and 2.2 APG.

North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview

The North Carolina Tar Heels (20-11, 12-18-1 ATS) are playing their best basketball of the season. They are currently on a six-game winning run, their longest of the campaign, after beating Syracuse, NC State, Virginia, Florida State, Miami, and Virginia Tech. Still, the Tar Heels need to take a scalp of a top-ranked team to boost their Big Dance chances, and Duke’s visit to Chapel Hill is their big opportunity. North Carolina is 5th in the ACC Standings with the same record as SMU, a win ahead of Wake Forest, and five games behind Duke.

North Carolina averages 82.1 PPG (24th) and allows 75.9 PPG (292nd). The Tar Heels are 122nd in rebounds (36.7) and 113th in assists (14.9). RJ Davis leads the team with 17.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.8 APG, and 1.1 SPG. Ian Jackson follows him with 13.5 PPG and 3.0 RPG, while Seth Trimble has 12.1 PPG, a team-high 5.3 RPG, and a team-high 1.4 SPG.

Why North Carolina will cover

• North Carolina has won each of its last 11 games at Dean E. Smith Center when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• North Carolina has won the first half in each of its last 11 games at Dean E. Smith Center.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Duke’s last 10 road games against Conference opponents has produced a total of 157 or fewer points.
• Twelve of North Carolina’s last 14 night games against Conference opponents at Dean E. Smith Center have produced a total of 156 or fewer points.

Duke vs North Carolina Prediction

North Carolina won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including two of the last three. However, Duke was victorious in the first meeting of the season, securing an 87-70 win and covering a -13.5 spread along the way. The Blue Devils must win to clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference, while North Carolina is playing its best basketball of the year, so I expect a very interesting game and tighter than many anticipate it to be. I can’t ignore the fact that North Carolina is 12-2 at home, and even if they lose this one, I am sure the Tar Heels will not go out without a fight. I am backing the hosts to cover.

Oliver Zivic's Pick: North Carolina +10.5