Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction 1/17/2026 Today’s College Basketball Picks

In this article, we will formulate an Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction for this College Basketball game on Saturday, January 17th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Basketball matchup.

Troy Trojans Preview

Troy Trojans have a 12-6 record this season and are tied in the 2nd place of the Sun Belt Conference. They have a 6-1 home record and are coming off a 91-65 home win against Southern Miss. Their previous three games were a 90-70 away win against Louisiana, a 86-74 away loss against Arkansas State and a 59-49 home win against South Alabama.

Offensively, Troy averages 86.2 points per game, while allowing 76.3 points per game defensively. The Trojans shoot with 46% from the field and grab 39.4 rebounds per game, while dishing out 16.9 assists per game. They average 3.3 blocks per game and 9.4 steals per game defensively.

Victor Valdes leads Troy in scoring, with an average of 15.9 points per game, while shooting with 42.7% from the field and 75.2% from the free throw line. Thomas Dowd is the team’s leading rebounder with 10.2 per game. Cooper Campbell leads the team in assists with 5.1 per game.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves have a 12-6 record this season and are tied in the 5th place of the Sun Belt Conference. They have a 5-5 road record and are coming off a 83-82 home win against Texas State. Their previous three games were a 86-74 home win against Troy, a 78-74 home loss against James Madison and a 107-63 home win against ARTE.

Offensively, Arkansas State averages 83.3 points per game, while allowing 78.7 points per game defensively. The Red Wolves shoot with 45% from the field and grab 39.6 rebounds per game, while dishing out 14.8 assists per game. They average 2.2 blocks per game and 8.2 steals per game defensively.

Matt Hayman leads Arkansas State in scoring, with an average of 11.8 points per game, while shooting with 41.9% from the field and 92% from the free throw line. Jalen Hampton is the team’s leading rebounder with 7.3 per game. Chandler Jackson leads the team in assists with 4.2 per game.

Arkansas State Red Wolves @ Troy Trojans Betting Trends: January 17, 2026

Why the Troy Trojans will win

• Troy has won each of its last eight day games at Trojan Arena.
• Arkansas State has lost nine of its last 11 road games after coming off overtime.
• Troy has won the first half in 19 of its last 20 games against Conference opponents at Trojan Arena.

Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win

• Arkansas State has won eight of its last nine day games against Conference opponents.
• Arkansas State has won the first half in 11 of its last 12 games.

Total Points Facts

• Fifty-five of Troy’s last 56 day games against Conference opponents have produced a total of 163 or fewer points.
• Each of Arkansas State’s last six games at Trojan Arena have produced a total of 163 or fewer points.

Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction

In this Arkansas State vs Troy Prediction, Troy is coming as -3 home favorites. Both teams have identical overall records but Troy has been almost perfect at home, while Arkansas State has been mediocre on the road. They also have identical ATS records, but Troy is 7-1 in its last 8 games and 6-1 against the spread, while Arkansas State is 2-2 in its last 4 and 1-3 against the spread. Troy has been better both offensively and defensively so I expect them to get the job done in this matchup. Take Troy and lay the points at home.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Troy -3