South Alabama vs Texas State Prediction 11/29/2025 Today’s College Football Picks

The South Alabama Jaguars and the Texas State Bobcats meet in week 14 college football action from UFCU Stadium on Saturday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a South Alabama Jaguars vs. Texas State Bobcats prediction.

South Alabama Jaguars Recap

The South Alabama Jaguars come into this game looking to add on to their 42-35 win over Southern Miss last time out to sit at 4-7 on the year.

Jaguars Win Back-To-Back Games

Bishop Davenport has thrown for 1,977 yards, 12 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 68.5% passing while Kentrel Bullock has rushed for 1,001 yards and 13 TDs and Keenan Phillips has 566 rushing yards and 2 TDs this season. Devin Voisin has 60 grabs for 724 yards and 4 touchdowns to lead South Alabama’s receiving group while Jeremy Scott has 22 catches for 365 yards and 3 touchdowns and Anthony Eager has 319 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Blayne Myrick has a team-high 73 total tackles while South Alabama’s defense has combined for 12 sacks and 6 interceptions so far this season.

Texas State Bobcats Recap

The Texas State Bobcats come into this game looking to add on to their 31-14 win over Louisiana-Monroe last time out to sit at 5-6 this season. 

Bobcats Searching For Bowl Eligibility

Brad Jackson has thrown for 2,769 yards, 16 touchdowns and 7 interceptions on 70.9% passing while Lincoln Pare has rushed for a team-high 931 yards and 11 touchdowns. Jackson has rushed for 579 yards and 13 TDs and Greg Burrell has 530 rushing yards and 3 TDs so far this season. Beau Sparks has 1,056 receiving yards along with 8 TDs and 77 catches while Chris Dawn Jr. has 777 receiving yards and 2 TDs. On defense, Treylin Payne leads the Bobcats with 98 total tackles while Kalil Alexander has a team-high 3 sacks. As a unit, Texas State’s defense has combined for 20 sacks and 7 interceptions so far this season. 

South Alabama Jaguars @ Texas State Bobcats Betting Trends: Week 14

Why the Texas State Bobcats will win

• South Alabama has lost each of its last four games against teams from Texas.
• Texas State has won four of its last five home games in November.
• South Alabama has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four games against teams from Texas.
• The home team has covered the spread in four of the last five games between South Alabama and Texas State.

Why the South Alabama Jaguars will win

• Texas State has lost four of its last five games as a favorite.
• The underdog has won five of Texas State’s last seven games.
• Texas State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last six games as a favorite.
• The underdog has covered the spread in seven of Texas State’s last eight games.

Total Points Facts

• Each of South Alabama’s last seven games as a road underdog have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last four games between South Alabama and Texas State have gone OVER the total points line.

Texas State Bobcats Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 14, Lincoln Pare ranks 1st amongst qualified players for catch rate (97.0%) this season.

South Alabama Jaguars Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 14, Kentrel Bullock ranks T9th amongst FBS players for touchdowns (14) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Texas State has suffered the equal-most road losses by a margin of three points or less of any FBS team this season (3).
• Texas State ranks T7th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (10.4).
• South Alabama ranks 134th among FBS teams for red zone percentage against this season (94.7).
• South Alabama ranks 129th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (70.8).

South Alabama Jaguars vs. Texas State Bobcats Prediction

I’m on the Bobcats here. These teams are very similar, but the level of motivation couldn’t be further apart in this game. Texas State’s fighting for a bowl game on senior day at home, while South Alabama is simply trying to play the role of spoiler in their best case scenario. I think the Jaguars compete, but I think Texas State ends up with the win and cover at home here. Give me Texas State.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Texas State -8.5