New Mexico State vs Florida State Prediction 8/29/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article, we will formulate a New Mexico State vs Florida State Prediction for this College Football Week 0 matchup on Saturday, August 29th. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this College Football matchup.

Florida State Seminoles Preview

Florida State finished last season with a 5-7 overall record, 2-6 conference record and were placed 13th place of the ACC conference. They had a 5-2 home record and a 0-5 road record and were 5-7 against the spread and 6-6 in over/under. 

Offensively the Seminoles scored 33 points per game last season, which ranked 22nd in the nation. Defensively, they allowed 22 points per game, which ranked 43rd in the nation. Florida State averaged 472.1 total yards per game last season, with 218.7 average rushing yards and 253.4 average passing yards per game. They allowed 328.8 total yards per game, 138.1 of them rushing and 190.8 passing yards per game.

Thomas Castellanos led the Seminoles with 180/309 completed passes and 2760 total passing yards and had 15 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He also led the team in rushing yards, with 557, adding a team-high 9 touchdowns, while Duce Robinson had a team-high 56 caught passes for a team-high 1081 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. Defensively, Earl Little had a team-high 76 total tackles, 33 of them solo, while Mandrell Desir led the Seminoles in sacks, with 6.5.

New Mexico State Aggies Preview

New Mexico State finished last season with a 4-8 overall record, 2-6 conference record and were placed 9th place of the Conference USA conference. They had a 3-3 home record and a 1-5 road record and were 6-6 against the spread and 6-6 in over/under.

Offensively the Aggies scored 21.6 points per game last season, which ranked 112th in the nation. Defensively, they allowed 27.6 points per game, which ranked 88th in the nation. New Mexico State averaged 327.9 total yards per game last season, with 77.3 average rushing yards and 250.7 average passing yards per game. They allowed 401.8 total yards per game, 165 of them rushing and 236.8 passing yards per game.

Logan Fife led the Aggies with 204/362 completed passes and 2240 total passing yards and had 11 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Kadarius Calloway led the team in rushing yards, with 438, adding a team-high 3 touchdowns, while Donovan Faupel had a team-high 61 caught passes for a team-high 661 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Naeten Mitchell had a team-high 93 total tackles, 58 of them solo, while Ezra Christensen led the Aggies in sacks, with 6.0.

New Mexico State Aggies @ Florida State Seminoles Betting Trends: Week 1

Why the Florida State Seminoles will win

• New Mexico State has lost each of its last 10 road openers.
• The home team has won each of Florida State’s last six games.
• New Mexico State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last eight games in August.
• The home team has covered the spread in each of Florida State’s last six games.
• The home team has won the first quarter in three of Florida State’s last four games.
• The home team has won the first half in each of Florida State’s last seven games.

Why the New Mexico State Aggies will win

• Florida State has lost four of its last five season openers as a favorite.
• The road team has won three of New Mexico State’s last four games.
• Florida State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last five season openers as a favorite.
• The underdog has covered the spread in each of New Mexico State’s last four games.
• Florida State has lost the first half in three of its last four games.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of New Mexico State’s last eight season openers have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of Florida State’s last four games against non-conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.

Florida State Seminoles Player Prop Facts

• Gemari Sands had the most rushing attempts without a rushing touchdown last season (105).

New Mexico State Aggies Player Prop Facts

• Dijon Stanley ranked T14th amongst qualified players for catch rate (85.7%) last season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Florida State recorded the largest margin of victory of any FBS team last season (74-points vs East Texas A&M on September 6, 2025).
• Florida State recorded the largest margin of victory in a home game last season (74-points vs East Texas A&M on September 6, 2025).
• New Mexico State have had overturned the largest 1st quarter deficit to win a game last season – 21 points vs UTEP.
• New Mexico State ranked 136th among FBS teams for rushing yards per game last season (77.3).

New Mexico State vs Florida State Prediction

In this New Mexico State vs Florida State Prediction, Florida State is coming as -31.5 home favorites. The Seminoles were the superior team last season, ranking on the top-45 of the nation both offensively and defensively, with a +11-point differential. On the flip side, the Aggies struggled were terrible on the road with a 1-5 record and had a -6-point differential this season. Florida State is a top-50 projected team this season and New Mexico State is well outside the top-110. Take Florida State for an easy win and cover in this one.

Nikos Lagouretos's Pick: Florida State -31.5