Montana State vs New Mexico Prediction College Football Picks 8/24/24

The Montana State Bobcats and New Mexico Lobos meet Saturday in week 1 college football action at University Stadium. Here’s a Montana State vs New Mexico Prediction. This article will include a Montana State vs New Mexico Pick.

Montana State Bobcats Betting Preview

The Montana State Bobcats won 8 games last year that ended in the second round of the playoffs, and they enter year 4 under coach Brent Vigen. Montana State has new offensive and defensive coordinators, so adjustments will be made. Tommy Mellott returns at quarterback after throwing for more than 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. Leading rusher Julius Davis also returns after leading the Bobcats with 718 yards and 6 touchdowns, while Ty McCullouch is the top returning receiver after 473 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Defensively, Rylan Ortt returns after 74 tackles, Brody Grebe returns after leading Montana State with 9.5 sacks and Blake Stillwell had 2 interceptions. Montana State has enough returning players on both sides of the ball to be a competitive squad. However, Montana State is rolling out new coordinators, so there could be growing pains early. Montana State has won 20 combined games in the last two years, so this isn’t your typical cupcake FCS opponent.

New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview

The New Mexico Lobos won 4 games last year, which was their highest total since 2016, and they begin the Bronco Mendenhall era. Mendenhall hasn’t coached since leaving Virginia in 2021. New Mexico has questions on offense with all five of its offensive line starters gone. However, the Lobos have their quarterback in playmaker Devon Dampier, and running back Andrew Henry averaged 6.7 yards per touch in a backup role. Caleb Medford returns as the top returning receiver, and getting Luke Wysong back from injury should be huge.

Defensively, Christian Ellis returns after 58 tackles, Kyler Drake led the Lobos with 3.5 sacks and Gabriel Lopez had 4 tackles for loss. New Mexico has intriguing players on both sides of the ball, but the defensive effort has to drastically improve. Also, New Mexico has a coach who has been out of work for a few years and new coordinators. It’s fair to have questions about New Mexico, at least early on.

Why the Montana State Bobcats will win

• New Mexico has lost 16 of its last 20 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• New Mexico has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 12 games as a home underdog.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of New Mexico’s last nine home games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

Montana State vs New Mexico Prediction

I really wanted to grab the points with New Mexico because it’s weird seeing an FBS team such big underdogs against an FCS team. However, Montana State is one of the best FCS teams in the country, while New Mexico is one of the worst FBS teams. New Mexico has a brand new offensive line, a rough defense based on last year, and a new coaching staff. A lot of learning on the fly. The Montana State Bobcats are positioned to hut the ground running and compete for an FCS title. Two touchdowns is a bit strange to see. I get it. I’ll just trust Montana State and lay the points.