BYU vs UCF Prediction College Football Picks 10/26/24

In this article, we will formulate a BYU vs UCF prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, October 26th at FBC Mortgage Stadium in Orlando, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 9 matchup. 

BYU Cougars Betting Preview

The BYU Cougars are 7-0 (4-0) this year after they defeated Oklahoma State by a score of 38-35 in their last game. BYU trailed 21-14 at halftime and 35-31 with 1:13 left, but they drove down and scored the winning touchdown with 10 seconds left for the win. The Cougars outgained Oklahoma State by a total of 473-421, lost the turnover battle 3-2, and went 5-10 on third down in the game. Jake Retzlaff threw for 218 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, while LJ Martin rushed for 120 yards and two scores. 

BYU has also defeated SIU, SMU, Wyoming, Kansas State, Baylor, and Arizona this year. The BYU offense has scored 34.9 points per game with 243.4 passing yards and 156.6 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 19 points per game this season. The Cougars have gone 32.9% on third down and 13-16 on fourth down through seven games. Jake Retzlaff has completed 59% of his passes for 1,644 yards, 16 touchdowns, and seven interceptions, while also rushing for 265 yards and two scores. 

UCF Knights Preview

The UCF Knights are 3-4 (1-3) this season after they lost to Iowa State by a score of 38-35 in their last game. UCF led 21-14 at halftime and 35-27 in the fourth quarter, but they allowed the game-winning touchdown with 30 seconds left in the loss. The Knights were outgained by a total of 530-416, tied the turnover battle at two, and went 3-12 on third down in the game. Jacurri Brown threw for 62 yards and two interceptions, while RJ Harvey rushed for 196 yards and two scores. 

UCF also has losses against Cincinnati, Florida, and Colorado, but they did start the season with wins over New Hampshire, Sam Houston, and TCU. The UCF offense has scored 30.4 points per game with 185.3 passing yards and 280.3 rushing yards per game, while the defense has allowed 25.7 points per game this season. The Knights have gone 43.2% on third down and 7-15 on fourth down so far this season. KJ Jefferson was benched in favor of Jacurri Brown at quarterback, but Brown was pretty bad in their last game. RJ Harvey has led UCF with 890 rushing yards and 11 scores this year. 

Why BYU will beat UCF

• BYU has won each of its last six games against non-AP-ranked teams.
• UCF has lost four of its last five October games as a favorite.
• BYU has covered the spread in each of its last five games as an underdog.
• UCF has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games against conference opponents at FBC Mortgage Stadium.

Total Points Facts

• Six of BYU’s last seven games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Three of UCF’s last four games as a home favorite have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• UCF ranks 5th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (11.3).
• UCF ranks 14th among FBS teams for yards per game this season (465.6).
• BYU ranks 6th among FBS teams for average point differential in third quarters this season (+8.6).
• BYU ranks 10th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage this season (81.3).

BYU vs UCF Prediction 

BYU comes into this matchup looking to stay undefeated on the season, but they were fortunate to escape their last game with a win against Oklahoma State. The Cougars played very poor defense, but their offense bailed them out in the final minute. UCF has lost four games in a row and while their offense did score 35 points last week, I still have very little confidence in them scoring on a consistent basis. BYU has been very good to start the season and I don’t think the UCF offense can keep up. Take the Cougars here. 

David Racey's Pick: BYU ML