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Ball State vs UConn Prediction 9/20/2025 Today’s College Football Picks
Pick details
Ball State (1-2) vs UConn (1-2)
September 20, 2025 at 03:30 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: UConn -21 — Over/Under: +53.5
Ball State and UConn meet Saturday in Week 4 college football action from Rentschler Field. Here’s a Ball State vs UConn prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Ball State Cardinals vs UConn Huskies pick. We will examine:
The Ball State Cardinals recent form and player performance
The Uconn Huskies recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Huskies
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cardinals
Recent betting trends in games played between Ball State and UConn
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Ball State vs UConn game.
Ball State overall is averaging only 12.33 points per game, while their defense is giving up 34 points per game. The offense is ranked 130th while the pitching is ranked 118th. In this game, if Ball State wants to find success the defense is going to need to step up in a big way and really try to put the pressure on.
UConn comes into this game with a 1-2 record but they have been very competitive in all three of the games. In the first game of the season, UConn was able to knock off Central Connecticut 59-13. Two games ago against Syracuse, they were able to force overtime, but they were defeated 27-20. In the last game against Delaware, UConn scored 41 points but they gave up 44 points and that led to the defeat. Under center for UConn is Joe Fanano, and he completed 28 of his 38 passes for 346 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
UConn the season is averaging 40 points while their defense is giving up 28 points per game. The offense is ranked 31st while the defense is ranked 101st. This is a good offensive team, but the defense obviously needs to be better. If the defense struggles, this is going to be an awful game.
Do I really want to lay 21 points with this UConn team? Not really, but I do think it’s really the only way to bet this game. UConn really could be 3-0 right now, and then we would be feeling a whole lot better about betting this game. This UConn offense finally has its quarterback in Joe Fanano, and he’s going to have another huge game here. This Ball State offense just isn’t very talented, and moving the ball is going to be a problem here. Ball State won’t reach 10 points, and it’s going to be UConn that is going to end up cruising to the victory. Back UConn to cover the spread.
The Ball State Cardinals recent form and player performance
The Uconn Huskies recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Huskies
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cardinals
Recent betting trends in games played between Ball State and UConn
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Ball State vs UConn game.
Big Time Test for Ball State
Ball State comes into this game with a 2-1 record, but they were able to pick up a victory in the last game. Two games ago against Auburn, Ball State was knocked off 42-3. In the last game against New Hampshire, it wasn’t a dominant game, but they were able to secure the 34-29 victory. Kaiel Kelly wasn’t awful, but they need him to be a lot better. He completed 9 of his 15 passes for 105 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Where he was good was with his legs, finishing with 13 carries for 101 yards and a touchdown. Qua Ashley also finished with 12 carries for 154 yards and two touchdowns.Ball State overall is averaging only 12.33 points per game, while their defense is giving up 34 points per game. The offense is ranked 130th while the pitching is ranked 118th. In this game, if Ball State wants to find success the defense is going to need to step up in a big way and really try to put the pressure on.
Why Ball State Will Beat UConn
- Connecticut has lost 19 of its last 24 September games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Connecticut has failed to cover the spread in six of its last seven games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Ball State has covered the spread in 15 of its last 20 games against non-AP-ranked teams.
Bad Luck for UConn?
UConn comes into this game with a 1-2 record but they have been very competitive in all three of the games. In the first game of the season, UConn was able to knock off Central Connecticut 59-13. Two games ago against Syracuse, they were able to force overtime, but they were defeated 27-20. In the last game against Delaware, UConn scored 41 points but they gave up 44 points and that led to the defeat. Under center for UConn is Joe Fanano, and he completed 28 of his 38 passes for 346 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
UConn the season is averaging 40 points while their defense is giving up 28 points per game. The offense is ranked 31st while the defense is ranked 101st. This is a good offensive team, but the defense obviously needs to be better. If the defense struggles, this is going to be an awful game.
Why UConn Will Beat Ball State
- Ball State has lost each of its last 13 September road games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- Connecticut has won each of its last eight games as a home favorite.
- Connecticut has covered the spread in each of its last four September games at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field.
- Ball State has failed to cover the spread in nine of its last 11 road games against non-conference opponents.
- Connecticut has won the first half in nine of its last 11 games against non-conference opponents at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field.
Ball State vs UConn Prediction
Do I really want to lay 21 points with this UConn team? Not really, but I do think it’s really the only way to bet this game. UConn really could be 3-0 right now, and then we would be feeling a whole lot better about betting this game. This UConn offense finally has its quarterback in Joe Fanano, and he’s going to have another huge game here. This Ball State offense just isn’t very talented, and moving the ball is going to be a problem here. Ball State won’t reach 10 points, and it’s going to be UConn that is going to end up cruising to the victory. Back UConn to cover the spread.
