Ball State vs Liberty Prediction 9/19/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

The Ball State Cardinals and the Liberty Flames meet Saturday in college football action from Williams Stadium in Lynchburg. Here’s a Ball State vs Liberty prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Ball State vs Liberty pick. We will examine the recent form and player performances for both teams, as well as the recent betting trends and streaks pertaining to this matchup. As we conclude, we will tie it all together with a summary that produces a sensible pick for a favorable betting outcome in this game.

Ball State Cardinals Betting Preview

This year Ball State got the unenviable task of opening up on the road versus Ohio State. That game went about as well as you might imagine: the Cardinals gave up 14 points in every quarter on the way to a 56-3 loss. QB Keldric Luster was 18-of-33 for 89 yards and a pick while Elijah Jackson led the rush with 20 yards of his two carries.

In game two versus Stony Brook, the Cards were comfortably ahead by halftime on a 21-3 edge. Ball State added 20 more points in the fourth quarter during a 41-17 win. Luster managed to go 27-of-32 in the victory with 256 yards, three scores and an interception. TJ Horton carried nine times for 125 yards and a touchdown of his own to lead the rush.

Liberty Flames Betting Preview

Over on the Liberty side, they kicked off their season with a game versus James Madison. The Flames were down 17-6 by the break and lost 20-13 despite holding the Dukes to a field goal after halftime. QB Deshawn Purdie was 17-of-27 for 230 yards and a touchdown. Kam Davis led the rush on 16 carries for 51 yards and Makai Jackson had three catches for 73 yards and a touchdown.

Matched up against Gardner-Webb last weekend, the Flames had a battle on their hands. Liberty was down 23-17 going into the final quarter, then added a touchdown to eke out a comeback win at home 24-23. Purdie was 6-of-17 for 122 yards and a touchdown, and Peyton Jones added 13 carries for 76 yards as the team’s top rusher in the victory.

Ball State Cardinals @ Liberty Flames Betting Trends: Week 3

Liberty Flames Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 3, Chase Reeves ranks T1st in the Conference USA for made field goals (3) this season.

Ball State Cardinals Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 3, Kamron Chamble ranks T5th amongst FBS players for interceptions (2) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Liberty ranks T127th among FBS teams for Q3 points per game this season (0.0).
• Liberty ranks T127th among FBS teams for average point differential in second quarters this season (-7.5).
• Ball State ranks T132nd among FBS teams for H2 opponent points per game this season (21.0).
• Ball State ranks 132nd among FBS teams for passing yards allowed per game this season (280.0).

Ball State vs Liberty Prediction

I’ll stick with Ball State. The Cardinals didn’t have too many issues with Stony Brook in their last win but there are still some things to clean up. Ball State committed 11 penalties for 99 yards in that one and the offense went just 3-of-10 on third downs. That said, the 482 total yards (226 rushing) and 7.1 yards per play more than made up for it. On defense the Cardinals came up with two picks and held the Seawolves to just 15 first downs.

As for Liberty, they made plenty of mistakes in their latest win as well. The Flames were just 2-of-12 on third downs with two lost fumbles and 11 penalties for 96 yards. The defense managed three takeaways though, and had a 5-of-14 success rate allowed on third downs. This matchup seems something of a coin flip but I’m leaning slightly toward the Cardinals.

Andrew Jett's Pick: Ball State Cardinals +14.5