Arkansas State vs TCU Prediction 9/19/2026 Today’s College Football Picks

In this article we will formulate an Arkansas State vs TCU prediction for this College Football game on Saturday, September 19th at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this Week 3 matchup. 

Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview

The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 1-1 this season after they defeated West Georgia by a score of 52-7 last week. Arkansas State led 21-7 at halftime and pitched a shutout in the second half in the blowout win. The Red Wolves out gained West Georgia by a total of 391-246, went 5-8 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 4-1 in the game. Trey Owens threw for 135 yards and two touchdowns, while Chauncy Cobb caught four passes for 54 yards and one score. Solomon Baggett rushed eight times for 70 yards and one score in the win. 

Prior to that game, Arkansas State lost to Memphis by a score of 42-24 in week one. The Red Wolves have scored 38.0 points per game with 230.0 passing yards and 182.5 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 24.5 points against per game on defense this season. Trey Owens has thrown for 460 yards with three touchdowns and four interceptions. 

TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview

The TCU Horned Frogs are 1-1 this year after they defeated Grambling by a score of 63-7 in week two. TCU led 28-7 at halftime and scored 35 in the second half to pull away with the lopsided win. The Horned Frogs out gained Grambling by a total of 676-210, went 2-7 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 2-1 in the game. Jaden Craig threw for 391 yards and four touchdowns, while Kari Ashley caught seven passes for 119 yards and two touchdowns. Jeremy Payne rushed nine times for 79 yards in the game. 

Prior to that win, TCU lost to North Carolina by a score of 15-10 in week zero. The Horned Frogs have scored 36.5 points per game with 283.0 passing yards and 195.5 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 11.0 points against per game this season. Jaden Craig has thrown for 566 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions this year. 

Why the TCU Horned Frogs will win

• Arkansas State has lost each of its last six road games in September.
• TCU has won 10 of its last 11 games in Texas.
• TCU has covered the spread in each of its last four games in Texas.
• Arkansas State has failed to cover the spread in each of its last four September games as a road underdog.
• Arkansas State has lost the first half in each of its last six September games as an underdog.

Why the Arkansas State Red Wolves will win

• Arkansas State has won five of its last seven games as an underdog.
• Arkansas State has covered the spread in six of its last seven games as an underdog against non-AP-ranked teams.

Total Points Facts

• Each of Arkansas State’s last five games against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of TCU’s last six September games as a favorite against non-AP-ranked teams have gone OVER the total points line.

TCU Horned Frogs Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 3, Ansel Din-Mbuh ranks T5th amongst FBS players for sacks (3.0) this season.

Arkansas State Red Wolves Player Prop Facts

• Heading into Week 3, Jaylen Bonelli ranks T1st in the Sun Belt Conference amongst qualified players for catch rate (100.0%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• TCU ranks 7th among FBS teams for rushing yards allowed per game this season (55.0).
• TCU ranks T11th among FBS teams for average point differential in fourth quarters this season (+10.5).
• Arkansas State ranks T5th among FBS teams for interceptions this season (4).
• Arkansas State ranks T128th among FBS teams for Q2 opponent points per game this season (14.0).

Arkansas State vs TCU Prediction 

TCU was able to bounce back from their week zero loss to North Carolina with a blowout win over Grambling last week, but they will be looking for their first FBS win here. The Horned Frogs should find success on offense in this game, as Memphis was able to score 42 on Arkansas State in week one. The Red Wolves also got a win last week against a FCS team, but they have more interceptions than touchdowns thrown. I am interested to see how TCU looks here, but they should be able to pull away in the second half for the cover.

David Racey's Pick: TCU -19.5