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Duke vs NC State Prediction College Football Picks 11/9/24
Pick details
NC State (5-4) vs Duke (6-3)
November 9, 2024 at 03:30 PM EST
The Line: Betting Odds: NC State -3 / Duke +3 — Over/Under: 48.5
The Duke Blue Devils and NC State Wolfpack meet Saturday in week 11 college football action at Carter-Finley Stadium. Here’s a Duke vs NC State Prediction. This article will include a Duke vs NC State Pick.
Duke Blue Devils Betting Preview
The Duke Blue Devils lost to SMU and Miami, and they play Virginia Tech next. Duke has split its last 4 road games. Maalik Murphy is completing 58.9 percent of his passes for 2,121 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Jordan Moore and Eli Pancol have combined for 1,038 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns, while Shamir Hagans has 32 receptions.
The Duke Blue Devils ground game is averaging 107.2 yards per contest, and Star Thomas leads the way with 706 yards and 5 touchdowns. Defensively, Duke is allowing 22.4 points and 349.1 yards per game. Ozzie Nicholas leads the Duke Blue Devils with 62 tackles, Alex Howard has 5 sacks and Chandler Rivers has 3 interceptions.
NC State Wolfpack Betting Preview
The NC State Wolfpack beat California and Stanford and plays Georgia Tech next. NC State has won 4 of its last 6 home games. CJ Bailey is completing 69.5 percent of his passes for 1,610 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Justin Joly and Kevin Concepcion have combined for 908 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns, while Noah Rogers has 25 receptions.
The NC State Wolfpack ground game is averaging 125.8 yards per contest, and Jordan Waters leads the way with 375 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, NC State is allowing 30.8 points and 385.9 yards per game. Sean Brown leads the NC State Wolfpack with 63 tackles, Davin Vann has 5.5 sacks and Bishop Fitzgerald has 2 interceptions.
Why the Duke Blue Devils will win
- Duke has won eight of its last nine games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- NC State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six home games against non-AP-ranked teams.
- The road team has covered the spread in three of NC State’s last four games.
Total Points Facts
- Each of Duke’s last six November road games against non-AP-ranked teams has gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of NC State’s last four November games as a home favorite has gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- NC State ranks T11th among FBS teams for Q4 points per game this season (10.0).
- NC State ranks 11th among FBS teams for average point differential in the fourth quarter this season (+5.0).
- Duke ranks T120th among FBS teams for 4th down conversion percentage against this season (71.4).
- Duke ranks 119th among FBS teams for time of possession per game this season (27:32).
Duke vs NC State Prediction
The Duke Blue Devils have lost back-to-back games and 3 of their last 4 games, so oddsmakers are falling off the bandwagon. However, you can argue Duke is still the better team. NC State isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire and is still 104th in scoring defense. NC State is also 2-7 ATS on the season. NC State is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a favorite. The value is with Duke and the points, a game the Blue Devils could win outright. Give me the points.
